Indicator Overview

The LTH Realised Cap indicator computes the realised capitalisation specifically for Bitcoin’s long-term holders (LTH) by valuing each UTXO held by LTHs (coins unmoved for ≥155 days) at the price when it was last moved, applying a 3-day smoothing to create a continuous metric line. This metric aggregates the cost basis of mature, conviction-driven holdings, offering insight into the economic resolve and behaviour or of experienced long-term investors.

How To Use

Sustained rises in LTH realised cap indicate strengthening conviction and accumulation by long-term holders, often at higher prices, confirming robust bull markets and institutional-grade inflows, while plateaus or declines suggest LTH distribution or profit-taking, frequently signaling cycle tops or exhaustion phases. Divergences, such as price significantly outpacing LTH realised cap, can highlight weakening holder support and potential bearish reversals, whereas LTH realised cap keeping pace or leading price supports sustainable, conviction-driven rallies. Traders monitor breaks above prior highs in LTH realised cap for strong bullish confirmation or drops below key supports as warning signs for exits, aiding precise cycle navigation in Bitcoin markets.