Indicator Overview

The STH Realised Cap indicator computes the realised capitalisation specifically for Bitcoin’s short-term holders (STH) by valuing each UTXO held by STHs (coins moved within the last <155 days) at the price when it was last moved, applying a 3-day smoothing to create a continuous metric line. This metric aggregates the cost basis of recently transacted, speculative coins, providing insight into the economic behaviour and pressure points of newer or more active market participants.

How To Use

Sustained rises in STH realised cap indicate fresh capital inflows from new or speculative buyers at higher prices, often fueling bullish momentum but also signaling increasing greed and potential overheat, while sharp declines or plateaus suggest STH realization of losses, capitulation, and attractive entry zones during bearish phases. Divergences, such as price significantly outpacing STH realised cap, highlight speculative excess and heightened reversal risk, whereas STH realised cap catching up or leading price confirms strong speculative demand and rally sustainability. Traders monitor breaks above prior highs for continued upside momentum or drops below key supports as signals for caution or exits, helping identify euphoria peaks and fear-driven bottoms in Bitcoin cycles.