Indicator Overview

The indicator calculates the percentage of all previous trading days where the price was lower than the current price. In simple terms, it measures the proportion of time that a HODLer (long-term holder) would have been profitable if they had purchased the asset on a random day in the past.

A high percentage (green) means that almost all past buyers are currently in profit, while a low percentage (red/yellow) means many recent buyers are now "underwater" (in a loss).

Dual-Ticker Comparison Logic

The ‘Crypto’ fields allow the indicator to operate in both absolute price and relative performance modes, making it suitable for outright positioning or pair-based allocation decisions.

• Single Crypto Analysis: If Crypto 2 is left blank, the indicator measures Crypto 1 against US Dollars. This mode is designed to identify statistically stretched rallies, deep mean-reversion zones, and long-term accumulation conditions where price trades multiple standard deviations below its historical average.

• Relative Strength and Ratios: When both fields are populated, the indicator automatically constructs a ratio of Crypto 1 divided by Crypto 2, such as ETH/BTC or SUI/SOL. The metric is then calculated on the ratio itself, isolating relative performance and stripping out broad market beta. This enables precise identification of overperformance, underperformance, and regime shifts between assets.

How To Use

The Positive HODL Days percentage is an effective tool for identifying the risk/reward profile of the market based on investor sentiment. Readings above 90% signal a high-risk environment preceding major cycle tops, as high profitability often leads to increased selling pressure and profit-taking. Conversely, low readings often signal low-risk accumulation zones and market bottoms, as conviction sellers have been flushed out after heavy losses.