Indicator Overview

This indicator models net short-term holder supply dynamics by reconstructing speculative accumulation and distribution over a 30-day horizon using a synthetic holding-age framework. The algorithm infers recently active positions by weighting price action across a rolling 155-day window, approximating the activity of holders whose last movement falls within the short-term regime. Changes in this reconstructed supply are transformed into a net flow metric that reflects the intensity and direction of capital rotation, producing a dynamic probabilistic estimate of 30-day inflows and outflows without relying on direct on-chain transfer data.

Positive values (Green): Mean STHs are accumulating (buying more of the asset than they are selling).

Negative values (Red): Mean STHs are net distributing (selling more than they are buying).

Dual-Ticker Comparison Logic

The ‘Crypto’ fields allow the indicator to operate in both absolute price and relative performance modes, making it suitable for outright positioning or pair-based allocation decisions.

• Single Crypto Analysis: If Crypto 2 is left blank, the indicator measures Crypto 1 against US Dollars. This mode is designed to identify statistically stretched rallies, deep mean-reversion zones, and long-term accumulation conditions where price trades multiple standard deviations below its historical average.

• Relative Strength and Ratios: When both fields are populated, the indicator automatically constructs a ratio of Crypto 1 divided by Crypto 2, such as ETH/BTC or SUI/SOL. The metric is then calculated on the ratio itself, isolating relative performance and stripping out broad market beta. This enables precise identification of overperformance, underperformance, and regime shifts between assets.How To Use

The 30-Day STH Net Position Change is used to identify periods of aggressive accumulation or distribution by the market's most reactive participants. Large, sustained negative readings (deep red, strong net selling by STHs) often coincide with market bottoms and capitulation events, as fearful investors sell their positions to Long-Term Holders.

Large, sustained positive readings (bright green, strong net buying by STHs) can signal bullish price momentum but also warn of a potential local top if the buying becomes excessive, as speculative supply is rapidly increasing.