Indicator Overview

The Bitcoin ETF Cost Basis indicator tracks the volume-weighted average price (VWAP) paid by all spot Bitcoin ETFs since inception, using a slow exponential decay to gradually discount older inflows and reflect the evolving average entry of institutional capital. The resulting line is displayed in a dynamic cost basis, while Bitcoin’s spot price is overlaid on the same logarithmic axis in white for direct comparison.

How To Use

When Bitcoin price trades well above the ETF cost basis (large white-green gap), ETFs are sitting on substantial unrealised gains, a condition that historically supports further upside as holders remain comfortable and new capital continues flowing in. When price falls significantly below the cost basis (price hugging or dipping under the coloured line), ETFs are underwater, creating latent selling pressure and often marking major bear market floors once capitulation runs its course.

Traders watch price rejections at or above the cost basis as distribution warnings and potential tops, and strong bounces from below the line as confirmation of new bull cycles driven by fresh institutional demand. This makes the ETF Cost Basis one of the cleanest, most powerful tools for gauging institutional conviction and identifying major regime shifts in Bitcoin’s price cycles.