Indicator Overview

The Bitcoin ETF Cost Basis MVRV indicator tracks the Market Value to Realised Value ratio for all spot Bitcoin ETFs, the current price divided by the volume-weighted average cost basis of their holdings (calculated with a slow 1.00105 decay). The result is displayed as a gradient line shifting from deep green (MVRV < 1, ETFs underwater) through neutral to bright lime-green (MVRV > 2, heavy unrealised profits). Bitcoin price is overlaid on a secondary logarithmic axis in white, with optional SMA/EMA overlays and a neutral line at 1.0.

How To Use

MVRV significantly above 1.5–2.0 (bright green) signals substantial unrealised gains across the entire ETF complex, historically marking euphoric phases, peak institutional confidence, and elevated risk of profit-taking or distribution. MVRV below 1.0 (deep green) reveals ETFs trading underwater, creating latent selling pressure and often coinciding with cycle capitulation or the strongest accumulation zones. The 1.0 acts as the gravitational centre: sustained trading above confirms bullish conviction, while breaks below warn of weakening demand.

Traders use vivid green spikes as sell or hedge signals, deep green plunges as generational buy signals, and the 1.0 line as the ultimate institutional sentiment divider, making ETF MVRV one of the cleanest real-time measure of regulated holder profitability in Bitcoin.