Indicator Overview

The Bitcoin Logarithmic Growth Model indicator projects Bitcoin’s long-term price trajectory using a time-decayed logarithmic regression curve, anchored to historical data from 2010. The centre line represents the expected fair value based on diminishing returns and adoption cycles, with an upper boundary that exponentially decays over time (reflecting reduced upside volatility) and a fixed lower boundary at (capturing persistent undervaluation floors). Future projections apply a slightly tapered slope for realism, with boundaries converging towards the centre line to model maturing market dynamics. Bitcoin’s price is overlaid on a logarithmic axis in a gradient from deep teal (undervalued) to bright orange (overvalued), with optional SMA/EMA overlays and user-defined projection horizons up to 3000 days.

How To Use

The centre line acts as Bitcoin’s gravitational fair-value anchor: sustained trading significantly above it (near or breaching the decaying orange upper boundary) signals overextension, euphoria, and heightened reversal risk, often preceding major corrections or cycle tops, ideal for profit-taking or hedging. Deep undervaluation below the teal lower boundary highlights capitulation and generational buying opportunities, historically marking the end of bear markets and the start of new adoption-driven bull cycles. Traders monitor price rejections at the upper boundary as sell signals and bounces from the lower boundary as high-conviction entries, while the projection curve provides forward-looking context for long-term positioning. Use the converging future boundaries to gauge diminishing volatility in a maturing asset class, with MA crossovers for short-term confirmation, making this model an indispensable strategic tool for cycle navigation, risk management, and timing major entries in Bitcoin’s multi-year growth story.