Indicator Overview

The Bitcoin Risk/Reward Probability tool is a statistical risk-assessment matrix designed to quantify the historical probability of investment outcomes based on specific holding durations. By analysing every daily closing price in Bitcoin's history through a sliding-window framework, the indicator calculates the mathematical likelihood of an asset being in the green or in the red over time horizons ranging from a single day to a full decade.

The visual core of the tool is a Regime Probability Histogram that illustrates how risk dissipates as time horizons expand. This data-driven approach removes emotional bias from the investment process, providing a clear visual representation of Bitcoin's historical tendency to trend toward 100% profitability as the holding period increases.