About Crypto vs Macro

The Crypto vs Macro Dashboard answers the fundamental question of cross-asset analysis: *how does crypto relate to the wider macro landscape?* It pairs any of 27 supported cryptos (BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, and a comprehensive altcoin long-tail) against major macro benchmarks: Gold, Silver, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Tech Software (IGV) and computes six distinct analytical lenses. **Macro Correlation** plots the rolling Pearson correlation between daily returns over a user-selectable window (14D / 30D / 60D / 90D). The correlation line is rendered with a gradient palette from deep red for strong negative correlation through to yellow-green at zero to bright green for strong positive correlation. **Crypto Correlation** applies the same methodology but pairs two crypto assets against each other, letting you test whether ETH still moves in lockstep with BTC or whether SOL has decoupled from the broader alt market. **Kinetic Momentum** compares the 30, 60, or 90-day Rate of Change (ROC) between two assets, defaulting to BTC and the S&P 500 over a 3-year timeframe. The ROC is smoothed with a 7-day moving average to reduce noise, revealing a clean comparative view of market velocity. **Asset Ratio** plots Asset 1 / Asset 2 as a log-scale ratio with gradient colouring intensifying as the ratio expands. **Relative Strength** applies a 14-period RSI to the asset ratio and smooths it with a 50-day SMA, then transforms the signal into a scaled strength index where values above 100 indicate momentum favouring Asset 1 and values below 0 favour Asset 2. **Volatility Comparison** overlays annualised volatility for Bitcoin, Gold, S&P 500, and Nasdaq on a single chart with configurable lookback window (30-365 days) and smoothing period (15-90 days), which reveals whether crypto volatility has genuinely converged with traditional assets or remains structurally elevated. Every view includes a draggable Insights panel with regime classification, period extremes, and rolling change metrics. The panel updates live as you switch views or change parameters.

Signal Zones

Trading Signals by Regime

How It Is Calculated

Frequently asked questions

Why does BTC sometimes correlate strongly with equities and sometimes not?

Bitcoin's correlation to equities is regime-dependent rather than constant. In risk-off macro events (rate hike shocks, credit crises, bank runs), correlation typically spikes toward +0.9 as all risk assets get sold indiscriminately. In calm macro regimes or periods driven by crypto-specific catalysts (halvings, ETF launches, network upgrades), correlation can drop toward zero or even turn negative. The rolling window lets you watch this regime-switching dynamically rather than treating the relationship as static.

What is the advantage of Kinetic Momentum over simply looking at price?

Price charts show absolute levels, but Kinetic Momentum isolates the velocity of the trend. By comparing the 30-day Rate of Change between BTC and the S&P 500, you can instantly see which asset is accelerating or decelerating. The 7-day smoothing filters out daily chop, revealing the true underlying momentum regime and making visual crossovers much clearer.

What's the difference between Ratio and Relative Strength?

**Asset Ratio** is the raw Asset 1 / Asset 2 price quotient at each point in time. It tells you the current exchange rate but can drift with the underlying price levels. **Relative Strength** applies RSI to the ratio series, identifying momentum shifts that happen *before* the ratio itself trends. When Relative Strength crosses above 100 after a period below, it often precedes the ratio breaking out to the upside by 30-90 days. Use Ratio for current levels; use Relative Strength for timing.

Why use log scale for the Asset Ratio chart?

Log scale is essential for ratio analysis because ratios compound multiplicatively. A move from 50 to 100 (2x) is visually the same as 100 to 200 (2x) on log scale, which correctly reflects the equal proportional gain. On linear scale, the latter move looks twice as big. For BTC/Gold specifically, log scale reveals structural trends (like the multi-year BTC outperformance since 2013) that linear scale would obscure behind the raw price explosion.

Why annualise volatility differently for crypto vs equities?

Bitcoin trades 365 days a year; equities trade roughly 252 days (weekends + holidays). The standard finance convention is to multiply daily standard deviation by √trading_days to get annualised volatility. Using √252 for both would understate BTC volatility by roughly 7% relative to true annualised exposure. The dashboard correctly applies √365 to BTC and √252 to Gold, SPX, and Nasdaq so the comparison is apples-to-apples.

What does the colour gradient on correlation mean?

The correlation chart uses a 15-stop bicolour gradient. Values near +1.0 appear in the brightest green; values trending toward 0 gradually fade through yellow-green. Values near -1.0 appear in the deepest red; values approaching 0 fade through lighter reds. The colour intensity scales with the absolute value, so extreme regimes (correlation above +0.7 or below -0.7) are visually obvious even before reading the y-axis. Zero correlation appears as muted neutral tones at the boundary between the two palettes.

How should I use the Crypto Correlation view?

**Crypto Correlation** answers the question 'do altcoins still trade like BTC or have they decoupled?' When ETH/BTC correlation stays above +0.8, ETH is functionally a leveraged BTC exposure, holding both provides little diversification. When correlation drops toward +0.3 or lower, ETH is establishing independent behaviour, often signalling a distinct narrative phase (DeFi summer, staking cycles, ETF flows). Applying the same framework to SOL, XRP, or smaller alts helps identify which 'altseason' narratives are genuinely uncorrelated trades versus thinly-disguised BTC beta.

What does BTC volatility converging with Nasdaq mean?

Historically BTC annualised volatility ran 80-120% whilst Nasdaq sat at 20-30%, a 4-5x gap reflecting Bitcoin's emerging-market characteristics. Post-ETF launch in 2024, BTC volatility has compressed toward 40-60% whilst remaining above equities. Convergence toward Nasdaq's level would signal structural maturation: deeper liquidity, institutional balance sheet participation, and reduced reflexivity. Full convergence would mark Bitcoin's transition from alternative asset to mainstream macro asset. The Volatility Comparison view tracks this evolution directly.

Can I compare silver or IGV to crypto?

Yes. The Asset 2 dropdown includes Silver (XAGUSD) and Tech Software ETF (IGV) alongside Gold, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100. Silver is useful for testing 'hard money' theses and crypto sometimes correlates more closely with silver than gold during precious metal rallies. IGV is valuable for pure tech-equity comparison, removing the broader S&P financials/energy weight to isolate the software-company beta that many crypto protocols resemble.