About Dormancy

The UTXO Dormancy Dashboard tracks the destruction of Bitcoin's most fundamental unit of time: **Coin Days**. Every day a Bitcoin sits unspent in a wallet, it accumulates one 'Coin Day'. When that coin is finally transferred, those accumulated days are mathematically 'destroyed'. By mapping the volume and lifespan of these destroyed coins against the spot price, analysts can accurately identify when veteran holders are capitulating at the bottom or distributing heavily into retail euphoria at the top. This upgraded suite goes beyond raw Coin Days Destroyed (**CDD**) by introducing advanced derived metrics. The Value Days Destroyed (**VDD**) Multiple divides the short-term 30-day destruction by the long-term 365-day baseline, providing an immediate heat map of extraordinary spending by ancient wallets. The Average Spent Output Lifespan (**ASOL**) and **Dormancy** explicitly calculate the average age in days of the coins moving on the network, spiking violently when dormant whales finally wake up. Supply-Adjusted CDD normalises destruction by circulating supply so the signal stays comparable across cycles, while Coin Years Destroyed sums a full trailing year of coin days destroyed as a slow long-term holder gauge. To gauge the broader structural regime, the dashboard features the Liveliness and Vaultedness oscillators alongside the newly integrated **Cointime Conviction** and **Reserve Risk**. Liveliness measures the ratio of all-time Coin Days Destroyed against all-time Coin Days Created, acting as a slow-moving pendulum that swings up during distribution phases and grinds down during macro accumulation. Vaultedness simply inverts this metric, visually tracking the amount of supply being hoarded and removed from liquid circulation. The Cointime Conviction applies Cointime Economics to flag deep fundamental value zones, historically aligning perfectly with absolute cycle bottoms when its readings peak, while Reserve Risk weighs price against the conviction stored in the HODL bank. Every metric can be read in two modes through the **Display** control. Raw plots the metric in its native units against price. **Percentile**, available on every metric except the Cointime Conviction (which is already expressed as a percentage), re-expresses each reading as its rank within the asset's entire history on a fixed 0 to 100 scale, so a value is always anchored to where it sits across every prior cycle rather than only the window on screen. Elevated and Depressed bands, a median line at the 50th percentile, and each metric's own colour gradient make cross-cycle positioning instantly legible. At the top of the metric list sits the **Composite Dormancy Risk**, a single gauge that fuses all ten dormancy metrics into one reading. Each metric is ranked against its full history, the accumulation-oriented metrics (Cointime Conviction and Vaultedness) are inverted so that high always means distribution risk, the ten are averaged, and that average is itself re-percentiled to a true 0 to 100 scale. A reading near 100 marks the most extreme distribution top the suite has ever printed and a reading near 0 the deepest accumulation. Because an extreme only appears when the whole suite agrees, the composite filters the single-metric false signals any one gauge can throw on its own. Each view carries a bespoke **Insights** panel and an **AI Summary** that surface statistics tailored to the metric in focus rather than one repeated set, from the Conviction reading on Reserve Risk to the trend direction on Liveliness and Vaultedness, the burst-day count on the Coin Days Destroyed family, and the full driver breakdown on the Composite. A Smoothing control applies an exponential moving average over 30, 60, or 90 days to clean up noisy spending data, defaulting to a 30-day EMA on the Percentile views of CDD, Supply-Adjusted CDD, Dormancy, and ASOL while leaving every Raw view unsmoothed.

Signal Zones

Trading Signals by Regime

How It Is Calculated

Frequently asked questions

What exactly are 'Coin Days'?

A Coin Day is a unit of time measuring the dormancy of a Bitcoin. If you hold 1 BTC for 10 days, you accumulate 10 Coin Days. When you spend that 1 BTC, you 'destroy' those 10 days. Tracking the destruction of these days allows us to differentiate between a casual transaction made by a day-trader (low Coin Days Destroyed) and a major liquidation by a long-term holder (high Coin Days Destroyed).

Why track Coin Days instead of just transaction volume?

Raw transaction volume is easily manipulated by exchanges or high-frequency traders moving the same coins back and forth. Coin Days Destroyed (**CDD**) ignores this noise because moving a coin that was bought yesterday destroys almost zero Coin Days. CDD only spikes when ancient, highly-dormant coins finally move, providing a cleaner signal of veteran holder activity.

What is the Percentile view and when should I use it?

Each metric has a different natural range, which makes raw values hard to compare across metrics and timeframes. The Percentile view solves this by ranking the current reading against the metric's entire history on a universal 0 to 100 scale. Because the rank is computed over all history and only then sliced to your window, the scale is absolute: a reading of 92 genuinely sits in the top 8 percent of everything the asset has ever recorded, not merely the top of what is on screen. Use it to judge how stretched or depressed a metric is across every prior cycle. It is available on every metric except the Cointime Conviction, which is already a percentage.

What is the Composite Dormancy Risk?

It is a single gauge that fuses all ten dormancy metrics into one overall risk reading. Each metric is ranked against its full history, the two accumulation-oriented metrics (Cointime Conviction and Vaultedness) are flipped so that high always means distribution risk, the ten are averaged, and that average is re-percentiled to a true 0 to 100 scale. A reading near 100 marks the most extreme distribution the suite has ever shown and near 0 the deepest accumulation. Its power is consensus: it only reaches an extreme when the whole suite agrees, which filters out the false signals any single metric can throw.

Why does the Composite use the full 0 to 100 range?

Averaging ten percentile series pulls every reading toward the middle, because the metrics rarely hit their extremes on the same day, so a plain average lives in a compressed band. The dashboard re-percentiles that average against its own history, which restores a true full-scale reading where 100 is the most extreme distribution top and 0 the deepest accumulation bottom the suite has ever printed. The result is a gauge that genuinely uses its whole range rather than hovering near the centre.

What do the Insights panel and AI Summary show?

Each view rebuilds a draggable Insights panel and a written AI Summary with statistics tailored to the metric in focus rather than one repeated set. Reserve Risk reports a Conviction reading (the inverse of its risk percentile), Liveliness and Vaultedness report a rising or falling trend, the Coin Days Destroyed family reports its burst-day count, and ASOL and Dormancy report coin age in days. The Composite breaks out how many of the ten metrics are elevated versus depressed, the agreement spread between them, and the current top risk driver. The AI Summary turns those same figures into a plain-language read of the prevailing regime.

Why is the Smoothing an EMA, and why does it default on some views?

An exponential moving average reacts faster to recent changes than a simple average while still cleaning up day-to-day noise, which suits these spiky spending metrics. The control offers 30, 60, and 90-day EMAs. The Percentile views of the noisier metrics (CDD, Supply-Adjusted CDD, Dormancy, and ASOL) open on a 30-day EMA so the ribbon reads cleanly, and the Composite always uses a 30-day EMA. Every Raw view opens unsmoothed so you can see the native series, and you can change or remove the smoothing at any time.

What causes a massive spike in ASOL?

A massive spike in Average Spent Output Lifespan (**ASOL**) means that the average coin moving on the network is extremely old. This typically happens during two specific events: absolute euphoria (veterans taking generational profit) or absolute capitulation (veterans panicking at the cycle bottom).

What are Dormancy, Supply-Adjusted CDD, and Coin Years Destroyed?

They are members of the coin-days family. Dormancy is the average age in days of the coins spent on a given day, a close cousin of ASOL. Supply-Adjusted CDD divides Coin Days Destroyed by circulating supply so the reading is comparable across cycles despite a growing coin base. Coin Years Destroyed sums a full trailing year of Coin Days Destroyed, smoothing the signal into a slow long-term holder gauge that highlights multi-year distribution and accumulation regimes.

Why is the VDD Multiple more useful than raw CDD?

Raw **CDD** is extremely volatile and heavily skewed by the rising spot price of the asset over time. The **VDD Multiple** solves this by factoring in the spot price and dividing a fast moving average by a slow one. This creates a clean, bounded oscillator that reliably flags when spending is statistically abnormal relative to the yearly average.

How do Liveliness and Vaultedness relate?

They are mathematically inverse. Liveliness rises when more coin days are destroyed than created, signaling that the network is moving toward a distribution phase. Vaultedness rises when more coin days are created than destroyed, signaling a hoarding regime. When Vaultedness approaches 1.0, the network's liquidity is essentially frozen.

What is the Cointime Conviction?

It is an advanced oscillator based on Cointime Economics. It compares the true fundamental value of the active supply against the fiat value of destroyed coinblocks. Extreme high readings indicate deep structural undervaluation, historically aligning with absolute cycle bottoms, as the fundamental cointime value of the network becomes too cheap to ignore.

What is 'Reserve Risk'?

Reserve Risk measures the ratio between the spot price and the accumulated 'HODL Bank'. It represents the conviction of long-term holders. When the price is high and conviction is low (high Reserve Risk), the network is overvalued. When price is low and conviction is high (low Reserve Risk), the network offers a pristine long-term risk-reward ratio.