About HODL Waves

The HODL Waves Dashboard maps the macroeconomic supply dynamics of Bitcoin and major altcoins (Ethereum, Cardano, Dogecoin, Litecoin) by segregating unspent transaction outputs (or equivalent on-chain data) into precise chronological age bands. By visually stacking these 12 distinct cohorts, from active day-traders (< 1 Day) to ancient decade-old whales (10y+), analysts can observe the literal transfer of wealth across market cycles. It reveals exactly when veterans are distributing into retail liquidity, and when short-term speculators are capitulating back to long-term holders. The dashboard features five distinct analytical paradigms: **Realised Cap HODL Waves**, **Supply HODL Waves**, **Supply by Vintage Year**, **The Age Pyramid** and **The Dormancy Clock**. The standard Supply view tracks the raw volume of coins in each age cohort, making it ideal for measuring absolute illiquidity and hoarding behaviour. The Realised Cap view weights each coin by the exact dollar price it last moved at. This heavily amplifies the visibility of new capital entering the system, providing a highly responsive heat map of fresh fiat inflows during parabolic bull runs. **Supply by Vintage Year** (Bitcoin only) re-cuts the same on-chain age data by the calendar year each coin was last active, plotting the result in absolute coins against the total circulating supply rather than as a percentage. Instead of relative age bands that coins climb through as they mature, every cohort is pinned to a fixed vintage, from the genesis era of 2009 through to the current year. Stacked newest at the bottom and shaded from deep blue (oldest) to hot red (newest), it shows at a glance how much of the float has sat untouched since a given year, and how aggressively old supply is being mobilised back into circulation. **The Age Pyramid** reimagines the age bands as a classic demographer's population pyramid. The twelve cohorts stack vertically with the youngest at the base and 10y+ at the crown, mirrored around a central spine: supply share extends to the left, invested-capital share (realised cap) to the right. The asymmetry is the signal. When the youngest bands bulge on the invested-capital side, new money is buying at a premium to the network's average cost basis, the classic top signature. When old bands dominate both flanks, the market has aged into a late-bear 'aged nation' of convicted holders. A timeline scrubber with a log-price sparkline animates the pyramid through the whole of history, so the demographic breathing of each cycle, young bulge, ageing, collapse and rejuvenation, plays out as a single moving object. Available for Bitcoin and every supported altcoin. **The Dormancy Clock** collapses the entire HODL structure into one profound number: the supply-weighted average age of a coin. A hand-built speedometer dial, graded from hot (a young, fast-moving network) to mint (an old, dormant one), reads the live figure against its all-time high, while the history line below plots average coin age versus price across every cycle. A falling clock means old coins are waking and re-entering circulation, the mechanical fingerprint of distribution; a rising clock means the network is ageing into accumulation as supply goes to sleep. Hovering the history line spins the needle to that day, turning the whole supply structure into a time machine. To enable surgical analysis, the suite includes a fully customisable band-selection panel and quick-filter presets. Users can instantly isolate Short-Term Holders (STH, < 6 months) or Long-Term Holders (LTH, 6+ months) to cleanly observe the structural footprint of speculative retail demand versus convicted smart money. On the Vintage view the same panel switches to per-year toggles, so any individual vintage can be isolated or muted. The Age Pyramid keeps the STH and LTH presets live to filter the pyramid rows, while the Dormancy Clock reads the whole network by design and needs no band selection.

Signal Zones

Trading Signals by Regime

How It Is Calculated

Frequently asked questions

Why does the Realised Cap view look so different from the Supply view?

The Supply view only cares about the raw number of coins. If a whale bought 10,000 BTC in 2011 for $1, it holds massive weight in the Supply view. However, the Realised Cap view values those coins at their acquisition price ($10,000 total). Therefore, the Realised view heavily amplifies new money buying at current prices, making it superior for tracking fresh capital inflows.

What is the Supply by Vintage Year view?

It re-cuts the same Bitcoin age data by the calendar year each coin was last moved, then plots it in absolute coins against total circulating supply. Where the HODL waves show relative age bands that coins climb through as they mature, the vintage view pins every cohort to a fixed year, from 2009 to today. It answers a simple question: how much of the supply was last active in each year, and how much has stayed dormant since.

Why is the Supply by Vintage Year view only available for Bitcoin?

The vintage bands are scaled to Bitcoin's circulating supply so they can be shown in absolute coins rather than percentages. That supply series, and the fixed issuance schedule behind it, is specific to Bitcoin, so the view is reserved for BTC. The altcoins retain the full Realised Cap and Supply HODL wave views.

Why do the warmer colors (red/orange) appear at the bottom of the chart?

The chart is stacked chronologically. The youngest, most active coins (warm colours) sit at the bottom. As those coins age, they structurally 'rise' through the bands into the cooler colours (greens and blues), visually representing the maturation of supply. The Vintage view follows the same logic, with the newest vintage at the bottom in red and the oldest at the top in blue.

What happens when the older bands shrink?

When an older band (e.g., 1y-2y) shrinks, it means those coins were transferred. When they move, their age instantly resets to zero, destroying the 'old' coin and simultaneously expanding the '< 1 Day' hot band at the bottom of the chart. On the Vintage view the same spend re-dates those coins to the current year, shrinking an old vintage and swelling the newest one.

Does this dashboard work for altcoins?

Yes, the upgraded dashboard tracks age metric equivalents for major altcoins like Ethereum, Cardano, Dogecoin, and Litecoin, allowing you to gauge whether retail speculators or long-term believers are driving the current market structure. The Supply by Vintage Year view is the one exception, as it is Bitcoin only.

How can I use this to spot market tops?

Historically, macro cycle tops are marked by extreme expansion in the Short-Term Holder bands (warm colours) consuming a massive percentage of the total chart, confirming that retail speculators have completely overwhelmed the smart money.

What is The Age Pyramid showing me?

It is the same age-band data drawn as a population pyramid for a single point in time: supply share on the left, invested capital (realised cap) share on the right, youngest cohorts at the base. The insight is the asymmetry between the two sides. A young base that is heavy on the invested-capital side means recent buyers are paying well above the network's average cost basis, which has historically marked tops. A pyramid dominated by old bands on both sides is the aged, illiquid structure of a late bear market. The scrubber lets you play the whole history and watch the shape breathe through each cycle.

How is the average age on The Dormancy Clock calculated, and what does it tell me?

Each age band is weighted by a representative midpoint age and the supply-weighted mean is taken, collapsing all twelve cohorts into one number: how long ago the average coin last moved. Because it reads the entire supply at once, no band selection applies. A rising clock means coins are sitting still and the network is ageing into accumulation, tightening liquid supply. A falling clock means dormant coins are waking and moving, the earliest mechanical evidence of distribution. New all-time highs in average age typically coincide with deep accumulation, where sellers are exhausted and supply must be bid away from conviction hands.