Indicator Overview

The indicator is Hot Supply Year-on-Year Delta. It calculates the net change in the Hot Supply (the volume of coins that have been spent or moved on-chain within the last 7 days) compared to the same date one year prior. This is the annual momentum of the hot supply, showing whether the most liquid and highly active portion of the circulating supply is collectively increasing or decreasing on a year-over-year basis. Positive values mean a net increase in hot supply relative to the previous year, reflecting higher levels of immediate transaction activity and coins changing hands, while negative values mean a net decrease, with recently moved coins becoming less active or dormant compared to the prior year.

How To Use

The Year-on-Year Delta provides a longer-term perspective on trends in short-term market velocity and liquidity, helping to filter out seasonal noise and highlight structural shifts across market cycles.

Sharp positive spikes (above zero) signal that significant coin volume is becoming hot compared to the previous year, often due to heightened distribution, renewed speculation, or euphoric phases where supply is rapidly redistributed during bull market expansions. Conversely, sustained periods of negative values (below zero) indicate that hot supply is contracting on an annual basis as recently active coins move into longer-term dormancy, characteristic of bear market transitions, post-bull consolidation, or maturing cycles where holders increasingly HODL and velocity slows. These prolonged periods of declining hot supply suggest reduced circulating pressure and strengthening conviction among participants. The transition from a sustained negative delta to a strong positive reading historically signals a regime shift, with liquidity ramping up year-over-year, often aligning with the early stages of new bull cycles or major breakouts as fresh capital revitalizes market activity.