Indicator Overview

The MSTR Logarithmic Risk is a long-term valuation and risk-assessment tool designed specifically for Strategy’s extreme price behaviour. It measures the current share price’s logarithmic deviation from a long-term, time-weighted average, then normalises this deviation across the entire available history. The result is displayed as a 6-stage heat-map dot series above the chart, ranging from peach/white (extreme underextension) to dark red (extreme overextension). Three real-time projected price levels are calculated and shown:

• Max Risk (dark red) – the price MSTR would reach if today replicated the most overextended regime in its history

• Median Risk (neutral) – the “fair value” level based on historical median deviation

• Min Risk (peach/green) – the price corresponding to the deepest historical discount

This creates a dynamic, cycle-aware valuation compass that accounts for MSTR’s unique combination of Bitcoin treasury growth, debt-financed accumulation, and equity premium volatility.

How To Use

Dark red dots and proximity to (or breaches of) the Max Risk line signal historically rare overextension, conditions that have previously preceded sharp premium compression, dilution events, or forced deleveraging. These zones are ideal for profit-taking, hedging, or position reduction. Peach to white dots near or below the Min Risk line indicate extreme undervaluation — periods that have historically offered the highest forward returns for those seeking discounted exposure to MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin strategy. The Median Risk line acts as a gravitational centre: sustained trading above it confirms bullish premium expansion, while breaks below warn of deteriorating conviction. Traders use clustering of extreme colours and crossings of the risk bands to identify regime shifts, calibrate position sizing, and time entries or exits. The metric is most powerful on full-history logarithmic views and functions as a strategic, cycle-aware compass rather than a short-term signal generator.