Indicator Overview

The indicator tracks the net change in the Bitcoin supply held by Long-Term Holders (LTHs) over the preceding 30-day period, measured in BTC. LTHs are defined as wallets holding coins last moved more than 155 days ago. This change is a measure of the 30-day accumulation/distribution of coins by the resilient core of the market.

Positive values (Green): Mean LTHs are accumulating (coins are maturing into the LTH cohort faster than LTHs are spending/distributing them).

Negative values (Red): Mean LTHs are net distributing (LTHs are spending/selling coins faster than new coins are maturing into their cohort).

How To Use

The 30-Day LTH Net Position Change is crucial for identifying macro-cycle phases based on the actions of the strongest hands. Large, sustained positive readings (deep green) signify strong net accumulation by LTHs, where they are buying or passively receiving coins from weak hands. This aggressive accumulation typically confirms a market bottom and signals conviction for the next bull phase. Large, sustained negative readings (deep red) signify aggressive net distribution by LTHs, where they are selling their old, cheap coins to new market entrants. This marks the peak of the bull market, as the fundamental source of long-term support is selling into the speculative frenzy, aligning with cyclical tops.