Indicator Overview

The indicator tracks the net change in the Bitcoin supply held by Long-Term Holders (LTHs) over the preceding 365-day period (YoY), measured in BTC. LTHs are defined as wallets holding coins last moved more than 155 days ago. This change measures the annual accumulation or distribution of coins by the resilient core of the market.

• Positive values (Green): Mean LTHs are in a year-over-year accumulation phase (coins maturing into the LTH cohort significantly outpace spending).

• Negative values (Red): Mean LTHs are in a year-over-year net distribution phase (LTHs are spending/selling coins faster than new coins are maturing into their cohort over the annual window).

How To Use

The YoY LTH Net Position Change is used to identify major macro-cycle shifts and structural supply trends. Because it uses a 365-day window, it filters out short-term noise and highlights the long-term conviction of the market's "strongest hands."

Large, sustained positive readings (deep green) signify a dominant year of net accumulation, typically confirming the transition from a bear market bottom into a new macro bull phase. Conversely, large, sustained negative readings (deep red) signify aggressive, year-long distribution. This indicates that the fundamental source of long-term support is offloading supply into a speculative peak, often signaling a cyclical top.