Indicator Overview

The Bitcoin LTH Realised Price Drawdown is a powerful capitulation oscillator that measures the percentage by which the Bitcoin market price is trading below the Long-Term Holder Realised Price.

The LTH Realised Price represents the average cost basis (on-chain purchase price) of all coins that have not moved for at least 155 days. Because this cohort represents the smart money of the network, their cost basis acts as a critical line of psychological and financial support. This indicator ignores all price action above this cost basis, specifically highlighting the rare periods of deep value where even the strongest hands are underwater.

How To Use

Investors use this tool to identify the terminal stages of bear markets and generational buying opportunities.

• The Zero Line (LTH Support): When the indicator is at 0%, the Bitcoin price is trading above the LTH cost basis. Historically, as long as Bitcoin stays at 0% drawdown, the macro trend remains structurally bullish.

• Capitulation Zones (The Blue Fills): When the line drops below zero, the area fills with colour, signalling that Bitcoin has entered a value zone. This means the market price is lower than what the most convicted holders paid for their coins.

• Color Gradient Intensity: The oscillator shifts from Deep Blue (minor discounts) to Bright White (extreme capitulation).

  • Deep Blue: Standard market corrections where price briefly dips below the LTH floor.

  • Light Blue: maximum pain events (such as the 2015 bottom, 2018 floor, and 2022 lows). These white peaks represent moments of extreme structural exhaustion where the probability of a macro trend reversal is at its highest.

• The Floor Discovery: By comparing current drawdown levels to historical extremes on the Y-axis (e.g., −20%, −40%, or −50%), you can gauge how much more flushing may be required before a cycle bottom is confirmed.