Indicator Overview

The LTH Loss Risk Metric is a macro-sentiment oscillator designed to track the financial distress of Bitcoin’s most steadfast holders. By monitoring the percentage of Long-Term Holder (LTH) supply currently held at a loss, the indicator provides a high-fidelity look at market capitulation and bottoming structures.

This metric serves as a contrarian gauge for risk: when the majority of long-term investors are underwater, the market is historically at its point of maximum financial opportunity. The colour-mapped gradient visualises this intensity, shifting toward deep reds as the percentage of LTHs in loss accelerates, signalling that a macro price floor is likely being established.

How To Use

Investors can use the metric to identify the final stages of bear markets and to time entries during periods of extreme structural weakness.

• Capitulation Gradient: The line changes colour based on the severity of long-term holder distress. Risk spikes represent historical value zones where LTH supply in loss is at its peak, typically coinciding with major generational bottoms.

• The 55% Threshold: The risk score is normalised against a historical extreme. A 100% Risk Score on this chart indicates that approximately 55% of all Long-Term Holder supply is held at a loss, an incredibly important level that has historically marked the absolute terminal stage of Bitcoin bear markets.