Indicator Overview

The indicator is a statistical normalisation of the Long-Term Holder MVRV (LTH MVRV) metric. The Z-Score measures the deviation of the LTH MVRV from its historical mean, scaled by its standard deviation. Long-Term Holders (LTHs) are those holding coins for more than 155 days. This normalisation provides a cycle-adjusted measure of the long-term investors' aggregate profitability and conviction relative to history.

How To Use

The LTH MVRV Z-Score is used to identify macro-cycle extremes based on the long-term holders' profitability. Readings significantly above zero (typically in the higher green band) suggest LTHs are sitting on historically large unrealised profits. This signals market-wide euphoria and potential overvaluation, aligning with periods where LTHs distribute their holdings, historically pinpointing major market peaks. Conversely, readings significantly below zero (typically in the deeper red band) signal that LTHs are holding historically large unrealised losses relative to the market. This represents deep undervaluation and high conviction, aligning with periods where LTHs accumulate coins, which historically pinpoints major market bottoms and high-reward accumulation zones.