Indicator Overview

The indicator measures the net dollar value of profit or loss realised on-chain exclusively by Long-Term Holders (LTHs), entities holding coins for more than 155 days.

This metric is calculated by comparing the realised profits and realised losses from all LTH transactions on a given day. This provides a powerful gauge of the aggregate monetary volume of distribution (profit-taking) or capitulation (loss-selling) by the most resilient market cohort.

Positive values (Spikes): Indicate that LTHs are realising a net profit.

Negative values (Troughs): Indicate that LTHs are realising a net loss.

How To Use

The LTH Net Realised Profit/Loss (NRPL) is critical for identifying macro-cycle peaks and troughs. Large, sustained positive spikes indicate massive profit-taking by LTHs. These events usually coincide with phases of extreme market exuberance and act as strong signs of a major cycle top as strong hands distribute their oldest, most profitable coins. Conversely, deep negative troughs signal heavy, aggregate loss-selling by LTHs. This is symptomatic of the final capitulation phase of a bear market where even the most resilient holders panic sell. These events are historically characteristic of cyclical market bottoms, representing excellent contrarian buying zones. Periods where the LTH NRPL line hovers close to zero suggest LTHs are largely dormant, neither aggressively distributing nor capitulating, typical of extended accumulation or early bull market phases.