Indicator Overview

The indicator is a cyclical sentiment metric that isolates the unrealised profit or loss held specifically by Long-Term Holders (LTHs), those holding coins for more than 155 days. It provides a relative measure of aggregate LTH emotional state. Because LTHs are the most resilient cohort, this metric offers a powerful, low-resolution view of macro-cycle peaks and troughs.

How To Use

The LTH NUPL chart is typically divided into sentiment zones that correspond to historical market cycle phases.

Euphoria/Greed (Above 0.5 - Red/Orange Zone): A high positive value means the vast majority of LTHs are in significant unrealised profit. This marks phases of high optimism and greed, often preceding major market tops as the incentive for LTHs to take profit becomes high.

Belief/Denial (0.25 to 0.5 - Orange/Green Zone): Strong profit is still present, indicating a healthy bull market phase, but the market is becoming elevated.

Optimism/Anxiety (0 to 0.25 - Green/Blue Zone): LTHs are in aggregate profit, but the ratio is low. A fall into this zone signals a weakening trend or market cooling.

Hope/Fear (-0.25 to 0 - Blue Zone): The aggregate LTH cohort is experiencing an unrealised loss. This zone often occurs during mid-cycle corrections or early bear market phases, indicating fear and the capitulation of the weakest hands.

Capitulation (Below -0.25 - Purple Zone): Extremely low, negative values indicate profound LTH losses and maximal fear, aligning with historical market bottoms and providing compelling contrarian buying signals.