Indicator Overview

The indicator calculates the percentage of the total supply held by Long-Term Holders (LTHs) (those holding coins for more than 155 days) that is currently holding an unrealised profit. The metric is expressed as a proportion (0 to 1), with 1 representing 100\%. The calculation incorporates a 7-day smoothing to moderate volatility and highlight the overall trend. This metric reflects the deep, aggregate profitability of the most resilient market cohort.

How To Use

This metric tracks the macro-cycle positioning based on LTH profitability. When the indicator registers historically high percentages (approaching 1), it implies that nearly all LTHs are sitting on profits, signalling extreme market appreciation and wealth for strong hands. This typically aligns with the late stages of a bull market where LTHs are incentivised to distribute their supply, thus increasing the likelihood of a major peak. Conversely, extremely low readings suggest a significant portion of LTHs are either at breakeven or at a loss. This maximum financial stress for the resilient cohort often precedes major cyclical bottoms and suggests a deep conviction phase, offering prime opportunities for patient accumulation.