Indicator Overview

The indicator measures the total dollar volume of losses realised on-chain each day exclusively by Long-Term Holders (LTHs), entities holding coins for more than 155 days.

This metric is calculated by summing the total difference between the coin's last-acquired price and the price at which it was spent, but only for coins that resulted in a monetary loss for the LTH. It provides a direct view of the final capitulation behavior of the most resilient market participants.

How To Use

LTH Realised Loss is the ultimate signal of a macro-cycle bottom because it requires the most patient and convicted holders to finally sell for a loss. Extreme spikes in this metric indicate severe, aggregate loss-selling by LTHs. These events are the clearest signal of a major capitulation phase, which historically marks the absolute low of a bear cycle. When the realised loss spike is high and begins to subside, it suggests the strongest hands that were willing to sell at a loss have been flushed out, setting the stage for recovery. Conversely, during periods where the market is trending well above the LTH cost basis (a bull market), this metric remains suppressed near the zero line, confirming an extremely healthy market structure with minimal distribution pressure driven by panic.