Indicator Overview

The LTH Realised Price 7D Change indicator tracks the weekly percentage change in Bitcoin’s Long-Term Holder (LTH) realised price (the average cost basis of coins unmoved for 155 days or longer), displayed as a filled area chart on the primary axis with a gradient (deep blue for sharp declines intensifying through to bright orange for strong increases).

How To Use

Positive and rising values reflect growing conviction among long-term holders, as their average cost basis climbs, typically confirming mature bull markets, institutional accumulation, and sustainable upward trends driven by experienced capital. Sharp negative readings reveal rare LTH distribution or forced selling, often marking cycle peaks, profit-taking by “strong hands”, or the final stages of euphoria before major corrections. Divergences are particularly powerful: spot price surging while the 7D change turns negative warns of weakening holder resolve and impending reversals, whereas price declines accompanied by stabilising or positive change signal resilient long-term demand and high-probability bottoms. Traders monitor crosses above zero as confirmation of renewed LTH accumulation, sustained negative streaks as rare distribution signals for caution or short exposure, and breakdowns from elevated positives as early warnings of cycle exhaustion, making this one of the most reliable tools for identifying major regime shifts, cycle tops/bottoms, and the behaviour of Bitcoin’s most patient capital.