Indicator Overview

The indicator measures the ratio of sale price to acquisition cost for coins moved on-chain by Long-Term Holders (LTH). The displayed value is the raw LTH-SOPR, centred around the break-even line of 1.0. Values above 1.0 indicate that long-term holders are realising profits, while values below 1.0 mean they are realising losses (typically only during deep bear markets). Due to the conviction of LTHs and Bitcoin’s historical price performance, LTH-SOPR often reaches higher peaks in bull markets (e.g., >2.0) and lower troughs in bear markets compared to short-term variants. The colour gradient from deep rust to orange/yellow highlights periods of increasingly significant LTH profit realisation.

How To Use

The LTH-SOPR is highly effective for identifying macro cycle trends and conviction among long-term “smart money” investors over longer timeframes. When LTH-SOPR sustains values below 1.0 (often for extended periods), it signals that even experienced holders are realising losses, typically marking bear market capitulation phases near cycle bottoms. Sustained or rising values well above 1.0 (e.g., trending higher in bull markets) indicate strong conviction, with LTHs holding rather than spending. However, repeated highs or a sharp increase in LTH-SOPR (especially late in bull cycles) suggests distribution and profit-taking by long-term holders, often preceding macro tops or major corrections as old coins return to circulation.