Indicator Overview

The indicator quantifies the absolute amount of circulating supply held by Long-Term Holders (LTHs) (those holding coins for more than 155 days) that is currently sitting at an unrealised loss. The raw data is smoothed over a 7-day window to present a clearer trend. Rising values indicate increasing pain and financial stress among resilient investors, a characteristic often observed during major market crashes. Conversely, low values suggest minimal LTH losses, typically found during bull markets.

How To Use

This indicator signals the maximum financial stress endured by the most resilient holders and is key for identifying macro-cycle troughs. High readings on this indicator signal that a significant portion of the LTH cohort is underwater. This extreme pressure often forces capitulation and has historically been a prerequisite for a major market bottom formation. Traders should watch for the metric to peak and then begin to decline, suggesting the most stubborn holders have capitulated or prices have started to recover their cost basis, signaling the worst of the bear market may be over. Conversely, low readings imply that LTHs are highly profitable, increasing the probability of distribution and a corrective move in the price.