Indicator Overview

The indicator calculates the current amount of a specific cryptocurrency's circulating supply held by Long-Term Holders (LTHs) (those holding coins for more than 155 days) that is currently sitting in profit. The metric uses a 7-day smoothing mechanism for trend clarity.

Increasing values suggest a larger portion of LTH supply is profitable (meaning current price is significantly above their aggregate cost basis), potentially indicating deep market appreciation. Conversely, low values reveal LTHs are largely at a loss, often correlating with deep capitulation.

How To Use

This indicator tracks the aggregate profitability conviction of the market's most resilient participants. Historically high readings (most LTHs in profit) signal maximum aggregate conviction and wealth for long-term investors. This can precede major tops, as LTHs begin to distribute their profitable coins into the market euphoria, increasing selling pressure. When readings are low, it means a significant portion of the LTH supply is either at break-even or in a loss. This occurs after a major price crash, indicating that only the highest conviction holders remain, aligning with cycle bottoms and low-risk accumulation zones.