Indicator Overview

The indicator measures the aggregate dollar value of losses currently held by Long-Term Holders (LTHs), entities whose coins were acquired more than 155 days ago.

This metric is calculated as the total difference between the acquisition price and the current Bitcoin price for all LTH-held coins where the current price is lower than the acquisition price. It represents the total latent selling risk and financial stress from the most resilient investors who are currently underwater on their investments. A rising value indicates increasing LTH financial stress.

How To Use

The LTH Unrealised Loss metric is a key measure of macro-cycle capitulation and opportunity. Record or near-record spikes indicate that a huge amount of old, accumulated capital is underwater. This high level of financial pain often forces the most resilient holders to capitulate, which typically marks the absolute market bottom of a bear cycle. When LTH Unrealised Loss peaks, it suggests that the strongest hands who are willing to sell at a loss are about to be, or have been, flushed out. Conversely, low, compressed readings, especially during a strong uptrend, suggest that the vast majority of LTHs are in profit. This minimal unrealised loss confirms the health and profitability of the resilient cohort, which is highly constructive for price stability and further growth in a bull market.

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