About Market Cycles & Structure

The Market Cycle Dashboard provides a comprehensive macroscopic view of asset performance by normalising historical price action into overlapping cyclic epochs. Rather than viewing a single continuous timeline, this suite partitions data into distinct regimes, such as halving epochs, macro bull markets, and secular bear markets. This allows analysts to compare current structural behaviour directly against past historical precedents. By anchoring time and price to significant pivot points, the dashboard removes absolute dollar bias and focuses purely on relative performance and time-in-market dynamics. The suite features ten distinct analytical perspectives. The Cycle Upside and Downside views track the exact **ROI** multiple from generational bottoms and the percentage decline from macroeconomic peaks, clearly visualising the asset's historically diminishing volatility profile. The Bull Drawdown and Bear Rallies modules isolate intra-cycle volatility, measuring the severity of counter-trend shocks to help distinguish between healthy corrections and structural regime shifts. Beyond macro cycle mapping, the dashboard includes a precise ATH Drawdown tracker and a comprehensive Seasonality matrix. The seasonality heat map calculates rolling monthly performance to identify statistical calendar biases, whilst the Year-to-Date (**YTD**) tracker normalises annual performance to a January 1st baseline. Together, these tools allow investors to contextualise current market extremes, benchmark trend maturity, and manage expectations based on empirical cycle boundaries. The two most recent perspectives step beyond cycle-relative framing to chart the asset's absolute structural repricing. The **Days Spent at Higher Price** view counts, for every session on record, how many prior days closed above the current level, rendered as a vertical spectrum that collapses toward zero at each new all-time high and swells through bear markets as spot sinks beneath an expanding stack of richer days. The **Satoshis per Dollar** view inverts price into the number of satoshis a single dollar commands, tracing the secular logarithmic decline in accumulation power as the network appreciates. Denominated in bitcoin's smallest unit, this final view is native to **BTC** and is reserved for that asset.

Signal Zones

Trading Signals by Regime

How It Is Calculated

Frequently asked questions

Why do historical cycles appear to peak at lower multiples?

This phenomenon is known as diminishing returns. As an asset's total **Market Cap** expands, it requires exponentially more capital to achieve the same percentage growth. Consequently, later cycles naturally exhibit compressed upside multiples compared to early discovery phases.

How does the Bull Drawdown view differ from the ATH Drawdown view?

The ATH Drawdown tracks the absolute percentage decline from the single highest price ever recorded. The Bull Drawdown view isolates volatility exclusively within a confirmed uptrend, measuring the depth of local corrections from rolling local highs.

Can I use Seasonality data to time the market?

Seasonality highlights empirical historical tendencies, not guaranteed outcomes. While certain months consistently demonstrate high win rates due to structural capital flows or tax cycles, it should be used as a contextual filter rather than a standalone directional trigger.

What defines a bear market rally in this dashboard?

The dashboard tracks the maximum percentage gain from a local trough during a confirmed macroeconomic downtrend. It reveals that sharp 30% to 50% rallies are entirely normal within secular bear markets and do not inherently signal a cycle reversal.

What does the Days Spent at Higher Price view actually measure?

For every day in the record it counts how many prior sessions closed above that day's price. The reading falls to zero whenever price sets a new all-time high, since nothing ever traded higher, and expands during drawdowns as spot slips beneath a growing stack of previously higher days. A push into record territory means the market has spent more time above the current level than at any point in its history, traditionally a deep-value condition.

Why is the Satoshis per Dollar view only available for Bitcoin?

A satoshi is the smallest unit of bitcoin, with 100,000,000 satoshis to a single **BTC**. Expressing a dollar's purchasing power in satoshis is therefore meaningful only for bitcoin, as the measure has no equivalent for other assets. The view is consequently restricted to **BTC** and hidden for every other market.

Is a rising days-spent-higher count bullish or bearish?

In isolation it is a contextual value gauge rather than a directional trigger. Elevated or record readings show spot is trading below most of its history, a backdrop that has historically favoured accumulation. A count that refuses to fall instead signals price cannot reclaim prior levels, reflecting unresolved overhead supply.