Indicator Overview

The MVRV Z-Score Distribution indicator measures the historical frequency and statistical positioning of the Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score since February 2013. The MVRV Z-Score itself identifies the deviation of Bitcoin's Market Value from its Realised Value (the aggregate cost basis of the network). This distribution model maps every daily Z-Score value into specific "buckets" to visualise what constitutes a "normal" valuation versus an extreme tail event. By highlighting the current score within this historical context, the indicator provides an objective look at how overextended or undervalued Bitcoin is relative to its entire trading history.

How To Use

The distribution is primarily used to identify market extremes (cycle tops and generational bottoms) by quantifying the rarity of the current Z-Score.

• The Green Zone (Accumulation/Bottoms): Values falling in the far-left green buckets (typically below 0.5) represent periods of extreme undervaluation. Historically, only a small percentage of days are spent in this zone, signalling generational buy opportunities where the market price is near or below the average investor's cost basis.

• The Red Zone (Distribution/Tops): Values shifting into the right-hand red buckets (typically above 3.0 and escalating toward 6.0+) represent extreme overvaluation. These tail events indicate that market value is significantly higher than the realised cost basis, signalling intense unrealised profits and a high probability of a cycle peak.

• Cumulative % Days Below: This metric provides a percentile ranking for the current market. If the current value has 90% of days spent below it, it confirms that the market is in the top 10% of historical expensiveness. Conversely, a value with only 5% of days below it highlights an exceptionally rare and high-conviction entry point.