Indicator Overview

The indicator is the MVRV Z-Score (2-Year Delta), an acceleration metric derived from the full-market MVRV Z-Score, which assesses the overall market's valuation relative to its historical cost basis. It is calculated by taking the current MVRV Z-Score and subtracting the value from exactly two years prior. This method isolates the market's current momentum and directional change over a 730-day period. The resulting Delta quantifies how much the entire market's speculative premium has increased or decreased in the last two years, providing a crucial, cycle-adjusted view on the velocity of market sentiment shift.

How To Use

The MVRV Z-Score (2-Year Delta) is primarily used for identifying and timing the acceleration and deceleration phases of macro-market cycles. High positive readings indicate the market has undergone a rapid increase in valuation and euphoria over the past two years, signaling that the current cycle is accelerating and potentially nearing a point of exhaustion. Historically, extreme positive Delta values have preceded major market peaks and corrections, suggesting a time for caution or profit-taking. Conversely, low or negative readings mean the market's valuation premium has significantly contracted or shifted to a discount over the two-year period. This alignment often occurs during periods of bear market deceleration and deep-value accumulation, presenting favorable long-term buying opportunities as the downward pressure subsides. Watching for the Delta to cross from negative territory back toward zero can confirm that the market has stabilized and a macro-recovery may be underway.