Indicator Overview

The NUPL (Net Unrealised Profit/Loss) indicator measures the aggregate unrealised profit or loss across the entire Bitcoin holder base, expressed as a ratio of market cap to realised cap. It serves as a powerful, market-wide sentiment thermometer that captures the emotional state of all participants combined, from short-term speculators to diamond-handed HODLers.

How To Use

The NUPL chart is divided into five canonical sentiment zones that have consistently mapped to historical cycle phases with remarkable consistency:

• Euphoria/Greed (Above +0.75 – Red Zone)
  The market is in extreme unrealised profit. Greed dominates. Historically the final stage before major tops.

• Belief/Denial (+0.50 to +0.75 – Orange Zone)
  Strong profits remain, but the easy money has been made. Classic “this time is different” territory.

• Optimism/Anxiety (0 to +0.50 – Green Zone)
  Healthy bull market with room to run. Most sustainable growth occurs here.

• Hope/Fear (-0.25 to 0 – Blue Zone)
  The market is underwater on paper. Weak hands capitulate, strong hands begin accumulating.

• Capitulation (Below -0.25 – Purple Zone)
  Maximal financial pain across the network. Historically the zone of deepest value and strongest forward returns.

Because NUPL reflects every coin in existence, it acts as the ultimate cycle compass: red/orange tops and purple bottoms have marked every major Bitcoin peak and trough since 2011 with near-perfect fidelity. Traders use entries in the purple zone for generational buys, exits in the red zone for cycle tops, and the crossing of the zero line as the clearest macro regime-shift signal in Bitcoin.