About On-Chain Caps

The On-Chain Caps Dashboard provides a macroeconomic framework for valuing crypto networks based on aggregate capital inflows rather than marginal spot price. It contrasts the traditional **Market Cap** against foundational on-chain baselines, namely the **Realised Cap**, **Investor Cap**, and **Thermocap**. By stripping away speculative noise, these metrics reveal the true historical cost basis of different market cohorts and the cumulative security spend of the network. This upgraded suite supports Bitcoin and major altcoins, offering four distinct analytical modes. The Absolute mode visualises logarithmic growth across the capitalisation models. The Change mode isolates the rolling 30 to 365-day momentum, exposing periods where capital inflows are accelerating or stalling. The Cap Loss Ratio mode provides a mathematically precise measure of market capitulation, calculating the exact proportion of the network valuation that is held in aggregate loss. The flagship **Valuation Bedrock** mode reveals a truth hidden inside the caps: market value is an additive stack. Thermocap forms the **bedrock**, the cumulative cost of securing the network. Realised cap minus thermocap is the **invested capital** layered above it, the net capital ever committed by holders. And market cap minus realised cap is the **air**, the pure speculative premium sitting on top. Rendered as geology, the bedrock sits at the base in amber, invested capital in mint capped by the realised-cap waterline, and the speculative air in pale blue above. A live composition card states it in plain language, for example 'today's price is 8% bedrock, 51% invested capital, 41% air'. At cycle tops the chart is mostly air; at bottoms the air vanishes and, when market cap falls below realised cap, the premium inverts into a red submerged band, the exact moments the Cap Loss Ratio spikes. Where MVRV is a ratio everyone quotes, the Bedrock makes the same information physical: layers you can see, and a price you can watch stand on its own capital. Hovering the history line retunes the card to any day in the past. To further assist analysts in identifying cyclical extremes, the dashboard applies dynamic gradient heat maps to the data traces. This visually highlights structural overvaluation during late-stage bull runs and profound undervaluation during bear market troughs, allowing investors to scale positions based on fundamental capital thresholds.

Signal Zones

Trading Signals by Regime

How It Is Calculated

Frequently asked questions

What is the difference between Realised Cap and Investor Cap?

Realised Cap values every coin at the price it last moved on-chain, representing the total network cost basis. Investor Cap refines this by subtracting Thermocap (all-time miner revenue), effectively isolating the true cost basis of investors by removing miner-related capital from the equation.

How is Thermocap used to evaluate a network?

Thermocap represents the absolute cumulative security spend of the network. It acts as a fundamental baseline of production cost. When Market Cap approaches Thermocap, it signals that the asset is trading near its pure intrinsic creation cost, historically marking absolute market bottoms.

What does the Cap Loss Ratio indicate?

It measures the mathematical severity of a bear market. By calculating the exact proportion of the network's valuation that sits in aggregate loss relative to its market size, a spiking ratio confirms profound capitulation and historically precedes major trend reversals.

Why use the Change (Delta) mode?

Absolute capitalisations generally trend upwards over macro timeframes, making momentum shifts hard to spot. The Change mode isolates the rolling rate of capital inflows or outflows, allowing analysts to detect demand exhaustion or acceleration before it fully reflects in the spot price.

Does this framework apply to altcoins as well?

Yes. The dashboard now supports major altcoins like Ethereum, Cardano, Dogecoin, and Litecoin. The principles of Realised Cap and capital inflows apply similarly across these networks, allowing you to gauge whether an altcoin's valuation is driven by genuine on-chain accumulation or pure speculation.

What is the Valuation Bedrock mode telling me?

It breaks the market cap into the three things it is actually made of: bedrock (thermocap, the cumulative cost of mining and securing the network), invested capital (realised cap minus thermocap, the net capital holders have committed above mining), and air (market cap minus realised cap, the speculative premium). Because bedrock plus invested capital plus air always equals market cap, the stack shows exactly how much of the price is backed by real capital versus pure speculation. At tops the price is mostly air; at bottoms the air compresses toward zero and the price sits almost directly on its invested capital.

What does it mean when the Bedrock chart goes 'submerged'?

Submerged means market cap has fallen below realised cap, so the average coin is held at a loss and the speculative air layer has fully inverted. Instead of a premium above the realised-cap waterline, a red band fills the gap between the price and the waterline beneath it. These are the same moments the Cap Loss Ratio mode spikes, and historically they have marked capitulation floors where coins change hands below the network's own aggregate cost basis.