Indicator Overview

The indicator calculates the percentage of the total circulating BTC supply that is currently at an unrealised loss. The metric is presented as a proportion between 0 and 1, with 1 representing 100%, and uses a 7-day smoothing for trend clarity. This percentage reflects the aggregate financial stress and underwater status of the entire market supply, providing a macro view of the market's pain threshold.

How To Use

This metric is essential for identifying the depth of fear and potential macro-cycle bottoms. Historically high readings (approaching the higher zone of the historical range) signal that a significant portion of the entire circulating supply is underwater. This indicates deep financial pain across all investors, aligning with major cycle bottoms and offering strong contrarian buying opportunities before a rebound. Conversely, if the metric reaches historically low levels (approaching 0), it implies nearly all of the circulating supply is profitable. This lack of stress is typical of the euphoric late stages of a bull market, suggesting caution as the incentive for profit-taking becomes maximal. A rapid increase from low levels often accompanies major market crashes.