Loading indicators...
About Profit & Loss
The Profit & Loss Dashboard is the unified command centre for network profitability, merging four complete suites - Realised P&L, SOPR, Unrealised P&L, and MVRV - into a single 26-view workflow. It answers both halves of the only question that matters: what holders are worth on paper, and what they actually confess when they sell. Every view loads lazily on demand, so the dashboard stays instant no matter how deep the catalogue runs. The flagship view is **Paper vs Confession**, a phase timeline that classifies every day of Bitcoin's history by smoothed MVRV (paper wealth) against smoothed SOPR (confessed behaviour at sale). Two lines are structural and never move: MVRV 1.0, where the average holder sits exactly at cost, and SOPR 1.0, where the coins that move are sold exactly at cost. These are economic break-evens, not statistical levels. Three further lines are **rolling percentiles of each metric over a trailing four years**, recomputed daily, so every day is judged against the regime it actually lived in rather than against a fixed number a maturing market has long outgrown. Together they carve **six psychological phases**. Where coins move at a loss: **Shakeout** (still rich in aggregate, so recent buyers are being flushed while long-term holders sit tight) and **Capitulation** (underwater and selling red). Where coins move at a profit, the paper axis decides: **Recovery** (paper still cheap, loss-sellers spent, where bottoms confirm), **Growth** (banking gains as the market rises), and **Distribution** (paper rich but barely confessed, so unrealised profit piles up as latent sell-side supply). Above the hard-selling line sits **Euphoria**: paper being converted into confessed profit at pace, historically clustered around blow-offs. They form a loop - Recovery, Growth, Distribution, Euphoria, Shakeout, Capitulation, and back to Recovery - painted along the price chart as a colour ribbon whose intensity deepens the further into its phase each day sits. A live card tracks the current phase, its running streak, the phase-plane path over 30 days, and phase occupancy across the window. A **cohort toggle** runs the entire lens against **Total**, **LTH**, or **STH** cost basis: the phases mean the same thing for each, because cost basis is cost basis whoever's it is, and the percentile lines absorb the very different scales each cohort's metrics run at. The realised portion decomposes every on-chain spending event into the exact dollar gain or loss crystallised by the seller. Six lenses cover **Net P&L**, cohort-stacked **Profit** and **Loss**, the log-scale **P/L Ratio**, the **SSRR** (wealth moved relative to stored **Realised Cap**), and **Cash Extracted**, which tracks cumulative, 30-day, and per-cycle Long-Term Holder profit-taking. Alongside them sits the full **SOPR** suite: sixteen metrics including Adjusted SOPR, LTH and STH SOPR, and twelve age-band variants, inspected through Percentile, Raw, Momentum, and Distribution views plus the **Profit-Pain Frontier** and **Who is Spending (SOAB)** modules. The unrealised portion marks every **UTXO** to market to reveal what share of supply sits above or below water, split across **Total**, **LTH**, and **STH** cohorts with a **Profit Projections** regression ladder that maps the spot prices at which key profitability thresholds would be breached. The **Pain Map** fuses HODL Waves with profitability: twelve age bands stacked Mekko-style by supply share, each coloured by how deep in profit or pain it sits, turning the market's entire profit structure into one readable object. Valuation is covered by the full **MVRV** family - nine metrics spanning MVRV, Z-Scores, Active MVRV, and LTH/STH Profit/Vol Ratios - joined by the **AVIV Ratio**, each with the same four oscillator views for percentile-based positioning.
Signal Zones
Trading Signals by Regime
How It Is Calculated
Frequently asked questions
What is the difference between Realised and Unrealised P&L?
Unrealised P&L measures paper gains or losses on coins still being held and fluctuates continuously with spot price. Realised P&L only counts gains or losses crystallised when coins actually move on-chain. This dashboard is built on that exact distinction - the unrealised side shows what holders are worth on paper, the realised side shows what they confess when they sell.
What is Paper vs Confession and what are the six phases?
It classifies every day by smoothed MVRV (paper) against smoothed SOPR (confession). SOPR 1.0 splits the chart first: below it, coins are moving at a loss, and the market is in **Shakeout** if the aggregate base is still rich (recent buyers being flushed whilst long-term holders sit tight) or **Capitulation** if it is underwater. Above SOPR 1.0, coins are moving at a profit and the paper axis decides: **Recovery** when paper is still cheap and the loss-sellers are spent, **Growth** when gains are being banked into a rising market, and **Distribution** when paper is rich but barely confessed, so unrealised profit piles up unsold. Beyond the hard-selling line sits **Euphoria**, where that paper is finally converted into confessed profit at pace. The phases form a loop, and watching them change reveals regime shifts before either metric does alone.
Why are the phase thresholds percentiles rather than fixed levels?
Because Bitcoin's amplitude is compressing. MVRV topped near 4.5 in 2017 and near 2.5 last cycle, so an absolute level that meant 'cycle top' in one era means 'mid-bull' in another. The hot and cold lines are therefore rolling percentiles over a trailing four years, recomputed daily, which judges each day against the regime it actually lived in. Two lines stay fixed on purpose: MVRV 1.0 and SOPR 1.0 are economic break-evens, not statistical levels, and percentile-ranking them would let the dashboard call a market 'in profit' whilst coins are being dumped at a loss.
What does the LTH and STH cohort toggle change?
It swaps whose cost basis the whole lens is measured against. The phases mean exactly the same thing in each, because cost basis is cost basis whoever's it is - what changes is whose. STH Capitulation is recent buyers underwater and selling, which happens in every correction, so the STH lens is a far busier chart. LTH Capitulation is long-term holders selling below their own cost, which is the generational-bottom signal and is genuinely rare. The scales differ enormously (LTH SOPR ranges to 6 whilst STH SOPR hugs 1.0), which is precisely why the thresholds are percentiles: the ranking absorbs the scale, so no per-cohort tuning is needed.
What does SOPR actually measure?
The Spent Output Profit Ratio divides the price at which a coin is spent by the price at which it was created. Above 1.0, the average moving coin is being sold in profit; below 1.0, sellers are crystallising losses. The suite includes Adjusted SOPR, LTH and STH variants, and twelve age-band decompositions to identify exactly which cohort is driving flows.
Why are there so many MVRV variants, and what is AVIV?
Each variant isolates a different holder base: standard MVRV covers the whole network, Active MVRV excludes lost coins for a tighter baseline, the LTH and STH families separate conviction holders from recent buyers, and the Z-Scores normalise everything against history. AVIV is the active-value counterpart ratio, tracked with the same Percentile, Raw, Momentum, and Distribution views for percentile-based positioning.
What is the Pain Map?
A fusion of HODL Waves and profitability analysis. Twelve age bands stack Mekko-style so each band's thickness is its live share of supply, and every band is coloured by how deep in profit or pain it sits, with white pinned to breakeven. Cycle tops read as red bleeding down through the age bands; bottoms read as old money glowing green beneath a thin layer of drowning recent buyers.
How do the realised and unrealised sides confirm each other?
The strongest signals come from confluence. Peak euphoria is 95%+ of supply in paper profit whilst SOPR and the P/L Ratio show that profit being aggressively confessed. Generational bottoms are the mirror image - most of the network underwater whilst SOPR holds below 1.0 and SSRR shows sellers exhausted. One side without the other is noise; both together is a regime.