About Profit & Loss

The Profit & Loss Dashboard is the unified command centre for network profitability, merging four complete suites - Realised P&L, SOPR, Unrealised P&L, and MVRV - into a single 26-view workflow. It answers both halves of the only question that matters: what holders are worth on paper, and what they actually confess when they sell. Every view loads lazily on demand, so the dashboard stays instant no matter how deep the catalogue runs. The flagship view is **Paper vs Confession**, a blended phase timeline that classifies every day of Bitcoin's history by smoothed MVRV (paper wealth) against smoothed SOPR (confessed behaviour at sale). The break-even levels at 1.0 carve five psychological phases - **Distribution** (rich and selling hard), **Harvest** (rich and taking profits), **Euphoric Hold** (rich and not selling, the post-top state), **Capitulation** (underwater and selling anyway) - painted along the price chart as a colour ribbon with an intensity glow that deepens the further into its phase each day sits. A live card tracks the current phase, its running streak, and phase occupancy across the window. The realised portion decomposes every on-chain spending event into the exact dollar gain or loss crystallised by the seller. Six lenses cover **Net P&L**, cohort-stacked **Profit** and **Loss**, the log-scale **P/L Ratio**, the **SSRR** (wealth moved relative to stored **Realised Cap**), and **Cash Extracted**, which tracks cumulative, 30-day, and per-cycle Long-Term Holder profit-taking. Alongside them sits the full **SOPR** suite: sixteen metrics including Adjusted SOPR, LTH and STH SOPR, and twelve age-band variants, inspected through Percentile, Raw, Momentum, and Distribution views plus the **Profit-Pain Frontier** and **Who is Spending (SOAB)** modules. The unrealised portion marks every **UTXO** to market to reveal what share of supply sits above or below water, split across **Total**, **LTH**, and **STH** cohorts with a **Profit Projections** regression ladder that maps the spot prices at which key profitability thresholds would be breached. The **Pain Map** fuses HODL Waves with profitability: twelve age bands stacked Mekko-style by supply share, each coloured by how deep in profit or pain it sits, turning the market's entire profit structure into one readable object. Valuation is covered by the full **MVRV** family - nine metrics spanning MVRV, Z-Scores, Active MVRV, and LTH/STH Profit/Vol Ratios - joined by the **AVIV Ratio**, each with the same four oscillator views for percentile-based positioning.

Signal Zones

Trading Signals by Regime

How It Is Calculated

Frequently asked questions

What is the difference between Realised and Unrealised P&L?

Unrealised P&L measures paper gains or losses on coins still being held and fluctuates continuously with spot price. Realised P&L only counts gains or losses crystallised when coins actually move on-chain. This dashboard is built on that exact distinction - the unrealised side shows what holders are worth on paper, the realised side shows what they confess when they sell.

What is Paper vs Confession and what are the five phases?

It classifies every day by smoothed MVRV (paper) against smoothed SOPR (confession) around their break-even levels of 1.0. Rich and selling hard is **Distribution**; rich and taking measured profits is **Harvest**; rich and not selling is **Euphoric Hold**, the post-top state; underwater and selling anyway is **Capitulation**. Watching the phases change reveals regime shifts before either metric does alone.

What does SOPR actually measure?

The Spent Output Profit Ratio divides the price at which a coin is spent by the price at which it was created. Above 1.0, the average moving coin is being sold in profit; below 1.0, sellers are crystallising losses. The suite includes Adjusted SOPR, LTH and STH variants, and twelve age-band decompositions to identify exactly which cohort is driving flows.

Why are there so many MVRV variants, and what is AVIV?

Each variant isolates a different holder base: standard MVRV covers the whole network, Active MVRV excludes lost coins for a tighter baseline, the LTH and STH families separate conviction holders from recent buyers, and the Z-Scores normalise everything against history. AVIV is the active-value counterpart ratio, tracked with the same Percentile, Raw, Momentum, and Distribution views for percentile-based positioning.

What is the Pain Map?

A fusion of HODL Waves and profitability analysis. Twelve age bands stack Mekko-style so each band's thickness is its live share of supply, and every band is coloured by how deep in profit or pain it sits, with white pinned to breakeven. Cycle tops read as red bleeding down through the age bands; bottoms read as old money glowing green beneath a thin layer of drowning recent buyers.

How do the realised and unrealised sides confirm each other?

The strongest signals come from confluence. Peak euphoria is 95%+ of supply in paper profit whilst SOPR and the P/L Ratio show that profit being aggressively confessed. Generational bottoms are the mirror image - most of the network underwater whilst SOPR holds below 1.0 and SSRR shows sellers exhausted. One side without the other is noise; both together is a regime.