Indicator Overview

The Puell Multiple indicator measures Bitcoin miner revenue pressure by comparing the daily issuance value (in USD) against its 365-day moving average. Values significantly above 3.0 signal extreme overvaluation of newly minted coins, historically marking cycle tops driven by miner profit-taking and supply flooding. Values below 0.5 reveal severe undervaluation, classic capitulation zones where miners are selling at a loss, often coinciding with generational cycle bottoms. The metric is displayed as a continuous gradient line (deep green at low extremes through yellow, orange, and red at peak extremes), with Bitcoin price overlaid on a secondary logarithmic axis in white and optional SMA/EMA overlays for smoothing.

How To Use

Deep red readings above 3.0 have preceded every major Bitcoin top, warning of unsustainable miner selling pressure, euphoria, and imminent corrections, ideal for profit-taking or hedging. Deep green readings below 0.5 have marked the most attractive accumulation zones in Bitcoin’s history, periods of maximum financial stress for miners that typically signal the end of bear markets and the beginning of explosive new bull cycles. Traders monitor sharp spikes into the red zone as sell signals and plunges into the green zone as high-conviction buy signals, while the gradual transition through yellow/orange serves as early warning of building pressure. The indicator’s strength lies in its fundamental grounding: when miners are forced to sell below cost (green), demand is insufficient to absorb supply, capitulation follows. When miners earn massive premiums (red), supply floods the market, euphoria peaks. Use extreme readings as primary cycle timing tools and the 1.0 midline as a fair-value anchor, making the Puell Multiple one of the most reliable indicators for identifying Bitcoin’s major turning points.