Indicator Overview

The Bitcoin STH Realised Price Drawdown is a high-sensitivity macro oscillator that measures the percentage by which Bitcoin is trading below the Short-Term Holder (STH) Realised Price.

The STH Realised Price reflects the average on-chain cost basis of coins that have moved within the last 155 days. This cohort represents the active supply and the more speculative side of the market. Because these participants are generally the most sensitive to price volatility, their cost basis serves as a critical bull/bear line for the market. This indicator strictly isolates periods of short-term holder distress, highlighting the exact moments when recent buyers are underwater.

How To Use

Investors and traders use this indicator to identify local trend exhaustion and high-probability dip buying windows during bull markets.

• The Bull Market Floor (0%): In a healthy uptrend, the STH Realised Price acts as a magnetic support level. As long as the indicator stays pinned at 0%, the market is in a position of strength where recent buyers are in aggregate profit.

• The Flush"Signal (The Orange Area): When the line drops below zero, the area fills with a gradient from Deep Brown to Bright Tan.

  • Deep Brown (0% to −10%): Minor corrections or shakeouts that often present low-risk entry points during a bull cycle.

  • Bright Tan/White-Orange (−15% to −30%+): Significant capitulation events. Historically, these peaks represent periods of maximum short-term pain where weak hands are flushed out, often marking the absolute bottom of a corrective phase.

• Trend Confirmation: A decisive reclaim of the 0% level after a deep orange spike is often the first signal that the local correction has ended and the bullish trend is resuming.

• Regime Identification: During prolonged bear markets, the indicator will stay deep in the orange zones for months. Seeing the drawdown line consistently fail to reclaim 0% indicates that the STH cost basis has flipped from support into overhead resistance.