Indicator Overview

The STH MVRV Distribution indicator measures the historical frequency and statistical positioning of the Short-Term Holder MVRV ratio since February 2013. While the standard MVRV looks at the whole market, the STH MVRV specifically isolates Short-Term Holders, which are investors who have held Bitcoin for less than 155 days. This distribution model maps daily STH MVRV values into granular "buckets" to visualise the typical unrealised profit or loss of recent market entrants. By highlighting the current ratio within this historical context, the indicator provides an objective view of how overheated or underwater the most price-sensitive cohort of the market currently is.

How To Use

The distribution is primarily used to identify medium-term momentum shifts and local market extremes by quantifying how rare the current STH profit/loss state is.

• The Green Zone (Maximum Opportunity): Values falling into the left-hand green buckets (typically below 1.0, and especially below 0.8) represent periods where Short-Term Holders are at a significant aggregate loss. Historically, very few days are spent deep in this zone; it signals capitulation among new investors, often marking high-probability entry points during a broader uptrend or the final stages of a bear market.

• The Red Zone (Maximum Risk): Values shifting into the right-hand red buckets (typically above 1.5, and escalating toward 2.5+) represent extreme short-term overvaluation. These events indicate that new buyers are sitting on large unrealised profits, increasing the likelihood of heavy distribution and local or cycle tops.

• The 1.0 Threshold (The Equilibrium): In this distribution, the 1.0 mark is the break-even point for Short-Term Holders. Values clustered around 1.0 represent market equilibrium. Sustained movement from the green side to the red side of the distribution suggests a transition from bearish distribution to bullish accumulation.

• Cumulative % Days Below: This metric provides a percentile ranking for the current STH sentiment. If the STH MVRV has a "95% Days Below" reading, it confirms that the current unrealised profit for new holders is higher than it has been for 95% of Bitcoin's history, signalling an extremely high-risk blow-off environment.