Indicator Overview

The STH MVRV Momentum indicator quantifies short-term holder profitability dynamics by comparing current market price to the STH cost basis. The differential between STH realised value and current price is expressed as a momentum histogram: green bars above zero indicate rising net profitability among short-term holders, while red bars below zero reveal increasing unrealised losses. Bitcoin price is overlaid on a secondary logarithmic axis for context, and optional smoothing can be applied to the momentum series to filter transient volatility.

Dual-Ticker Comparison Logic

The ‘Crypto’ fields allow the indicator to operate in both absolute price and relative performance modes, making it suitable for outright positioning or pair-based allocation decisions.

• Single Crypto Analysis: If Crypto 2 is left blank, the indicator measures Crypto 1 against US Dollars. This mode is designed to identify statistically stretched rallies, deep mean-reversion zones, and long-term accumulation conditions where price trades multiple standard deviations below its historical average.

• Relative Strength and Ratios: When both fields are populated, the indicator automatically constructs a ratio of Crypto 1 divided by Crypto 2, such as ETH/BTC or SUI/SOL. The metric is then calculated on the ratio itself, isolating relative performance and stripping out broad market beta. This enables precise identification of overperformance, underperformance, and regime shifts between assets.

How To Use

Expanding green momentum signals that recent holders are increasingly in profit, confirming speculative inflows, bullish regimes, and potential trend continuation, whereas deepening red momentum reflects mounting short-term losses, often marking capitulation, fear-driven bottoms, or high-conviction accumulation opportunities. Divergences between price and momentum highlight shifts in short-term holder behaviour: a price rally accompanied by weakening green momentum warns of trend exhaustion, while fading red momentum amid price weakness suggests resilient demand and prospective rebounds. Zero-line crossings serve as regime confirmation, with extreme positive momentum indicating potential profit-taking and deep negative momentum identifying contrarian entry points, making the indicator a precision tool for timing short-term speculative cycles using reconstructed STH positioning.