Indicator Overview

The indicator is a statistical normalisation of the Short-Term Holder MVRV (STH MVRV) metric. The Z-Score measures the deviation of the STH MVRV from its historical mean, scaled by its standard deviation. A positive Z-Score indicates the STH MVRV is above its historical average, signalling short-term overvaluation or high profitability, while a negative score signifies undervaluation or short-term losses. This normalisation provides a cycle-adjusted measure of short-term holder capitulation and euphoria.

How To Use

The STH MVRV Z-Score is used to identify high-probability cycle extremes relative to historical norms. Readings significantly above zero (typically +3.0 or higher, depicted by the dark red/orange colour gradient) suggest the market is in a state of extreme short-term euphoria, indicating a strong likelihood of a local or macro peak. Conversely, readings below zero (especially -0.5 or less) signal a deep short-term holder capitulation or maximum pain, which historically pinpoints robust buying opportunities and cycle troughs.