Indicator Overview

The indicator is a cyclical sentiment metric that isolates the unrealised profit or loss held specifically by Short-Term Holders (STHs), those holding coins for less than 155 days. It provides a relative measure of aggregate STH emotional state. Because STHs are typically more reactive to price changes, this metric offers a high-resolution view of short-term market peaks and bottoms.

How To Use:

The STH NUPL chart is typically divided into sentiment zones, which correspond to historical market cycle phases:

Euphoria/Greed (Above 0.5 - Red/Orange Zone): A high positive value means the vast majority of STHs are in significant unrealised profit. This marks phases of high optimism and greed, often preceding major market tops as the incentive for STHs to take profit becomes high.

Belief/Denial (0.25 to 0.5 - Orange/Green Zone): Strong profit is still present, indicating a healthy bull market phase, but the market is becoming elevated.

Optimism/Anxiety (0 to 0.25 - Green/Blue Zone): STHs are in aggregate profit, but the ratio is low. A fall into this zone signals a weakening trend or market cooling.

Hope/Fear (-0.25 to 0 - Blue Zone): The aggregate STH cohort is experiencing an unrealised loss. This zone often occurs during mid-cycle corrections or early bear market phases, indicating fear and the capitulation of the weakest hands.

Capitulation (Below -0.25 - Purple Zone): Extremely low, negative values indicate profound STH losses and maximal fear, aligning with historical market bottoms and providing compelling contrarian buying signals.