Indicator Overview

The indicator measures the total dollar volume of losses realised on-chain each day exclusively by Short-Term Holders (STHs). Short-Term Holders are defined as entities holding coins for less than 155 days.

This metric is calculated by summing the total difference between the coin's last-acquired price and the price at which it was spent, but only for coins that resulted in a monetary loss for the STH. It provides a direct view of the panic and capitulation behaviour of the most speculative market participants.

How To Use

Extreme Spikes in STH Realised Loss indicate severe selling pressure driven by panic and fear, where a large aggregate amount of coins that were bought recently are being sold below their purchase price. These massive loss-realization events are the clearest signal of a major capitulation phase, which historically marks the absolute market bottom of a bear cycle. When the realised loss spike is high, it suggests weak hands have been flushed out, setting the stage for recovery. Conversely, during powerful bull markets, this metric remains suppressed near the zero line. This indicates that almost all STHs are holding unrealised profit, and therefore, virtually no losses are being realized. Low readings confirm an extremely healthy market structure with minimal selling pressure from newer investors.