Indicator Overview

The indicator is an on-chain equivalent that simulates the variant of the Market Value to Realised Value (MVRV) ratio, focusing exclusively on Short-Term Holders (STH). This metric measures the ratio between the current market price and the average acquisition cost for investors that have moved the asset in the last 155 days. We use a 155D rolling VWAP to simulate the STH cost basis.

A value above 1.0 indicates that the average short-term holder is currently in profit, while a value below 1.0 signifies that the average short-term holder is holding at a loss. The metric reveals short-term market sentiment and saturation.

How To Use

The STH MVRV provides actionable insight into potential short-term market extremes and capitulation. Significant readings well above 1.0 (historically around 1.5 to 2.0, coloured dark red/orange) suggest the market may be approaching a short-term top or peak euphoria, which could be a opportune moment for prudent profit-taking.

Conversely, sustained readings below 1.0 (where the average short-term holder is underwater) often pinpoint periods of heavy capitulation and deep value, signalling a potentially attractive buying or accumulation zone.