About Supply Distribution

The Supply Distribution dashboard is the definitive on-chain framework for tracking **who** owns Bitcoin, **how** they behave, and **how conviction** shifts across market cycles. Rather than focusing on spot price or short-term volatility, this dashboard decomposes the entire circulating supply into behavioural cohorts while also surfacing visible institutional positioning. The suite unifies thirteen distinct analytical views into a single workflow: • **Wallet Distribution** segments the network into six wallet-size cohorts (Shrimp → Humpback) with supply share, address counts, and rolling net flows. • **Cohort Conviction** applies the proprietary Accumulation Index, blending weighted conviction scores per wallet size into a unified 0-100 oscillator with colour-coded regime zones. • **STH & LTH** isolates the Short-Term vs Long-Term Holder split using the 155-day threshold. • **Active & Vaulted** exposes which portion of supply is liquid versus deeply hoarded. • **Total Circulating** contextualises every metric against the hard 21M cap. • **RHODL Ratio** provides a time-weighted HODL extremity gauge with seven classifiable regimes. • **Apparent Demand** measures net absorption of new issuance. • **Institutional Holdings** delivers a real-time snapshot of visible public treasuries (Spot ETFs, Corporate, and Sovereign) showing total BTC held, % of circulating supply, and a ranked list of top public holders. • **Retail Holdings** tracks the footprint of the everyday investor (< 10 BTC), measuring total retail supply percentage, active user counts, and a proprietary Retail Investor Index that acts as a retail FOMO/capitulation oscillator. • **Old Money** isolates the deepest, most dormant supply, coins last active 3y+, across four age bands (Mature 3y–5y, Old 5y–7y, Ancient 7y–10y, Lazarus 10y+). It shows a stacked supply view in absolute BTC with a dashed combined total, plus a Distribution metric that surfaces precisely when these long-held coins are being spent. • **Capitulation Quadrant** is an animated, gapminder-style scatter that maps every age cohort by unrealised profit or loss (X) against its spending intensity versus its own historical norm (Y), with bubble size set by supply held. Four behavioural quadrants — Distribution (in profit, spending), Conviction (in profit, holding), Diamond Hands (underwater, holding) and Capitulation (underwater, spending) — turn the cost-basis and spending data into a live sentiment map. A timeline scrubber replays how cohorts drift between quadrants across the cycle, with capitulation clustering at bottoms and distribution flashing near tops. • **Supply Circulation Map** is an alluvial flow view of Bitcoin's circulatory system: coins age rightward through the HODL bands (Young → 10y+). A Circulation Ratio (revived ÷ matured) grades the regime from laminar accumulation to haemorrhaging distribution, isolating the diagnostic 3y+ old-hand and Lazarus spending from routine churn. Ageing flows are inferred by mass balance from the HODL-wave band balances and measured revived volumes.

Signal Zones

Trading Signals by Regime

How It Is Calculated

Frequently asked questions

Why are there multiple different views instead of one primary chart?

Each view answers a different structural question. Wallet Distribution reveals *who* owns supply. Cohort Conviction reveals *whether they are accumulating or distributing*. STH & LTH reveals *how recently they acquired*. Active & Vaulted reveals *how deeply they are hoarding*. RHODL and Apparent Demand provide *cycle-timing oscillators*. Institutional Holdings reveals *visible public treasury positioning*, Retail Holdings isolates *everyday investor behaviour*, and Old Money reveals *how much of the deepest, oldest supply is held and when veterans finally spend it*. Treating supply structure as a single metric misses the behavioural nuance that drives market regimes.

What makes the Cohort Conviction score different from raw wallet growth?

Raw wallet-count growth is easily distorted by exchange reshuffling, custodial address splits, and retail speculation. The Conviction Index applies the Accumulation Index algorithm per cohort and weights each by its deviation from neutral (0.5), then blends across all six tiers. This produces a regime-classifying oscillator with seven distinct zones from Extreme Distribution to Extreme Accumulation.

Why does the dashboard use the 155-day threshold for Long-Term Holders?

Statistical research into Bitcoin's UTXO lifespan reveals that once a coin has been held for roughly 155 days, the probability of it being spent drops dramatically. This makes the 155-day mark the behavioural boundary between reactive speculators (STHs) and conviction-heavy investors (LTHs). This is the same threshold used throughout the OCM on-chain suite.

How should I interpret the Wallet Distribution Flows view?

Flows show the net BTC absorbed (positive) or distributed (negative) by each cohort over rolling windows. The 14-day view captures tactical positioning; the 30-day view shows structural behaviour; the 365-day view reveals full-cycle wealth transfer. Watch for divergence: when Whales (1K+) are absorbing whilst Retail (<10 BTC) is distributing, a supply shock is often imminent.

What does a high RHODL Ratio actually mean?

The **RHODL Ratio** divides the Realised Cap of 1-week-old coins by that of 1-2-year-old coins. A high reading means the young-coin cohort now holds disproportionate network value, which is a hallmark of late-stage euphoria where veterans have distributed heavily into retail exuberance. The 14-day EMA smooths noise; historical percentile ranking classifies the regime from Generational Buy (<5th) to Euphoric Top (>95th).

How do I read the Apparent Demand metric?

**Apparent Demand** measures net network absorption: new demand minus miner issuance and dormant supply reactivation. A positive 30-day EMA means the network is absorbing new coins faster than they are being minted and sold. A deeply negative reading means supply is overwhelming demand. The seven-zone regime classification makes the current phase immediately legible.

What does the Institutional Holdings view show?

The **Institutional Holdings** view provides a current snapshot of visible public treasuries: Spot ETFs (flow-derived), Corporate treasuries, and Sovereign governments. It displays total BTC held, percentage of circulating supply, and a breakdown across the three categories. This gives a clear picture of institutional conviction and positioning outside of pure on-chain data.

How does the Retail Investor Index work?

The Retail Investor Index is a composite oscillator designed to measure 'Main Street' participation. It blends Z-scores of small-balance addresses (>$10 and >$1k), new address momentum, and total retail user counts (<10 BTC). When the index surges above 1.0, it signals retail FOMO and exuberance (often a cycle top indicator). When it flatlines or bleeds below 0, retail interest is washed out, typically characterising bear market bottoms or mid-cycle resets.

What is the Old Money view and how do I read it?

**Old Money** isolates Bitcoin's deepest, most dormant supply: coins last active three years or more ago, split across four age bands, Mature (3y–5y), Old (5y–7y), Ancient (7y–10y) and Lazarus (10y+). The default Supply view stacks these bands in absolute BTC with a dashed line marking the combined 3y+ total, so you see both the composition and the headline at a glance. The Distribution metric flips the question around and surfaces *only* when this aged supply is being net spent, making veteran distribution into strength immediately visible. Steady growth in Old Money means coins are aging into ever-deeper conviction and tightening float; sustained distribution from the oldest bands has historically clustered near cycle tops.