Indicator Overview

The indicator quantifies the absolute amount of the circulating supply (measured in coins) that is currently sitting at an unrealised loss. This is determined by summing all coins whose current price is lower than their last on-chain acquisition price. The raw data is smoothed over a 7-day window to present a clearer trend. Rising values indicate increasing pain and financial stress across the entire market, a characteristic often observed during major market crashes and bear markets. Conversely, low values suggest minimal aggregate unrealised losses, typically found during strong market rallies or extended periods of consolidation.

How To Use

This indicator is a key measure of market-wide capitulation risk and opportunity. High readings on this metric signal that a historically significant portion of the entire circulating supply is underwater, which is often a historical prerequisite for a major market bottom formation. Traders should watch for the metric to peak and then begin to decline, suggesting that losses have been realized or prices have begun to recover, signaling the worst of the sell-off may be over. Conversely, low readings imply complacency and a lack of market washout, increasing the probability of a corrective move to shake out weak hands and create necessary stress.