Indicator Overview

The indicator measures the aggregate dollar value of losses currently held by all holders across the entire market (known as Total Unrealised Loss).

This metric is calculated as the total difference between the acquisition price and the current Bitcoin price for all coins where the current price is lower than the acquisition price. It represents the total latent selling risk and financial stress from all investors who are currently underwater on their investments. A rising value indicates increasing market-wide financial stress.

How To Use

The Total Unrealised Loss metric is a key measure of macro-cycle capitulation risk and opportunity. Record or near-record spikes indicate that a historically huge amount of capital is underwater. This high level of financial pain often leads to mass panic-selling, or capitulation, which typically marks the absolute market bottom of a bear cycle. When Total Unrealised Loss peaks and then begins to decline, it suggests the market's weakest hands have been flushed out, setting the stage for recovery. Conversely, low, compressed readings (near zero), especially after a long consolidation or during a strong uptrend, suggest that the vast majority of the market is in profit. This minimal unrealised loss is constructive for price stability, as it reduces the incentive for panic selling.