About URPD

The UTXO Realised Price Distribution (**URPD**) Dashboard is one of the most powerful structural maps in on-chain analysis. It is a real-time inventory of every coin on the Bitcoin network plotted at the exact price it was last moved. Rather than viewing supply as a single aggregate number, URPD reveals the literal topology of holder cost bases, showing analysts where concentrated clusters of coins sit waiting to act as support below spot price or resistance above it. The dashboard offers **seven distinct analytical lenses**. The **Profit / Loss** view uses the classic green/red colour scheme to instantly show which supply clusters are currently in unrealised profit versus loss. The **Cohort Split** view stacks Short-Term Holder (orange) and Long-Term Holder (blue) supply per price band, with a Stacked/Grouped toggle and an STH/LTH isolation mode, turning the chart into a live map of who owns which level. The **Holder Age** view recolours each cluster by average dormancy, exposing exactly which vintage of holder occupies each price level. The **UTXO Density** view shifts the y-axis to raw UTXO count, highlighting fragmented retail clusters versus consolidated whale positions. The **Avg Coin Size** view colours bars on a teal-to-violet gradient by average BTC per UTXO, revealing whether each cost-basis band is dominated by whale-scale positions or retail dust - a perspective unavailable on any mainstream URPD implementation. The **USD Invested** view plots the aggregate dollar value locked at each cost basis, split visually between supply currently held in profit and supply held in loss, with the info card immediately quantifying the total dollar amounts and percentages above and below spot. Finally, the **Break Level** view provides a full interactive stress test. All views share a set of precision controls: a **Gaussian KDE smoothing mode** that replaces raw bars with a gradient density area (layered fills with a glowing edge line) without touching the underlying data, so hover values remain truthful; a **Cumulative overlay** with a median cost basis dot marking the exact price at which 50% of supply is in profit; a **current price marker**; and **dynamic zoom** to isolate near-price, profit-only, or loss-only windows. The **Info Card** is rebuilt as a view-specific panel. Each view surfaces four high-signal tiles tailored to that analytical lens: Profit/Loss shows in-profit percentage, in-loss percentage, median cost basis with spot distance, and tight-range concentration; Cohort Split shows STH/LTH supply shares and each cohort's profit percentage; Age shows weighted average age, old-coin share, young-coin share, and underwater-age (whether loss supply skews older or younger than the profit side); Density shows total UTXOs, the densest band, UTXOs-in-profit (count-weighted), and network average coin size; Avg Coin Size shows network average, whale band, retail band, and the share of supply in positions of 1 BTC or more; USD Invested shows total invested, USD below spot, USD above spot, and average cost basis. The **Profit Percentile Ladder** in the snapshot shows the exact price required for 25%, 50%, 75%, and 90% of supply to be in profit - directly quotable for content. Click any bar for a **Bucket Deep Dive** including USD invested, average coin size, and a full cohort mini-bar breakdown of every age band. Drag-select across multiple bars for a **Range Deep Dive** covering BTC, supply share, USD, weighted age, cohort split, and average coin size across the selected zone. The **Break Level** view has been substantially upgraded. Stats use straddle-aware bucket apportionment so the supply numbers glide smoothly as the slider crosses bucket boundaries rather than stepping. Drag uses a fast `restyle` path (colours only) rather than a full chart redraw, making the slider noticeably silkier on large bucket counts. A **Range mode** adds a second handle to test a price band: it reports supply density per 1% of price move within the band, benchmarked against median bucket density, plus a **Cascade Risk** stat quantifying the stop-loss density of supply sitting 0–5% below current spot.

Signal Zones

Trading Signals by Regime

How It Is Calculated

Frequently asked questions

What exactly does URPD show me?

**URPD** plots every coin on the network against its cost basis - the exact price at which it was last moved on-chain. The result is a literal topography of where holder conviction is anchored. Tall clusters reveal price levels where large volumes of supply changed hands; these levels frequently act as support (below spot) or resistance (above spot) because holders at their cost basis exhibit predictable psychological behaviour around breakeven.

Why does URPD work as support and resistance?

When spot price approaches a level where many holders acquired their coins, two psychological forces activate. If price approaches from above, those holders are near breakeven and are highly motivated to sell (creating resistance). If price approaches from below, those same holders refuse to sell at a loss and may accumulate more (creating support). The larger the supply cluster, the stronger the effect.

What is the difference between the seven views?

**Profit/Loss** answers 'is each cluster in the green or red?'. **Cohort Split** answers 'who owns each level - short-term or long-term holders?' and can be isolated to show STH or LTH supply alone. **Holder Age** answers 'how long have these coins sat dormant?', exposing whether support clusters are veteran conviction or recent retail. **UTXO Density** answers 'how fragmented is this cluster?', indicating retail versus whale dominance. **Avg Coin Size** answers 'what is the average wallet size at each level?' - a teal-to-violet gradient that makes whale-dominated bands immediately visible. **USD Invested** answers 'how much dollar value is anchored at each level?' with the total split between capital in profit and capital in loss. **Break Level** lets you set a hypothetical price to see exactly how supply dynamics change.

How does the Break Level view work?

The Break Level view places an interactive gold handle on a slider. As you drag it to a hypothetical price, the dashboard recalculates the network using straddle-aware maths so the numbers glide rather than step. It highlights the specific clusters flipping between profit and loss, quantifies the BTC volume shifting, and breaks down the LTH/STH cohort composition of the move. A **Range mode** adds a second blue handle so you can test a price band rather than a single level, reporting supply density per 1% of move and a Cascade Risk figure for stop-loss density immediately below spot.

What does the Smoothing toggle do now?

When enabled, Smoothing replaces the raw bars entirely with a **Gaussian KDE gradient area** - layered translucent fills beneath a glowing edge line. The bars are hidden but the underlying data is unchanged, so hovering the curve still shows the true bucket values. This view emphasises the overall density shape and broad structural clusters rather than individual bucket-level noise. The palette legend hides automatically since there are no coloured bars to decode.

What is the Profit Percentile Ladder?

The ladder is a compact table in the snapshot info card showing the exact BTC price at which 25%, 50%, 75%, and 90% of total supply would be in profit. These levels are derived from the cumulative distribution and are directly quotable: 'Bitcoin needs to reach $X for three-quarters of all supply to be in profit.' The 50% level - the Median Cost Basis - is also marked as a dot on the cumulative overlay line.

What does the Cascade Risk stat mean?

Cascade Risk quantifies the BTC supply whose cost basis sits between 0% and 5% below current spot price - the zone most likely to be stop-loss-triggered by a minor drawdown. A high reading means a small dip could force a large volume of supply into realised loss, which historically amplifies selling pressure as those holders capitulate. A low reading suggests the immediate floor is resilient with little forced-sell overhang.

How do I use the Cohort Split view effectively?

Switch to Cohort Split and examine the stacked orange (STH) and blue (LTH) bars at the dominant clusters near spot. Use the **Show** pill to isolate STH or LTH supply entirely. A support cluster that is overwhelmingly blue (LTH-dominated) is structurally far more reliable than one dominated by orange (STH supply), because long-term holders have demonstrated multi-month conviction and rarely capitulate on short-term drawdowns. Switch to **Grouped** mode to compare the absolute sizes of each cohort at a given level side by side.

What does the Avg Coin Size view reveal that others do not?

Average coin size (BTC per UTXO) separates whale accumulation zones from retail dust zones at each cost basis level. A high-average-size cluster below spot is structurally stronger support because large-wallet holders are anchored there; they tend to be more patient and less reactive to short-term volatility. Retail-dominated clusters (low average size) are more prone to panic selling. No mainstream URPD implementation currently surfaces this dimension.

What does the USD Invested view tell me?

USD Invested plots the aggregate dollar value locked at each cost basis band (BTC volume multiplied by the price at which those coins last moved). The info card splits the total into the dollar amount currently held in profit (below spot) and in loss (above spot), with percentages. This reframes the URPD from a Bitcoin-denominated perspective to a dollar one - useful for assessing the scale of unrealised gains or losses relative to the total capital deployed into the network.

How do I use the Range Deep Dive?

On any snapshot view, click and drag horizontally across multiple bars to select a price zone. The info card switches to a Range Deep Dive showing the total BTC, supply share, USD invested, profit/loss split, cohort composition, weighted age, and average coin size across the entire selected band. Double-click anywhere to clear the selection. This is designed for analysts who think in zones rather than individual buckets - for example, selecting a broad accumulation range to assess its total structural weight.

How should I interpret the Tight Range Supply figure?

This shows the percentage of network supply sitting within ±10% of current spot price. High values (>25%) indicate dense liquidity surrounding current price, where price tends to behave predictably and move slowly. Low values (<10%) indicate a liquidity vacuum where price can move violently in either direction because there is little cost-basis-anchored resistance in the immediate vicinity.