The Cointime Price is a cost basis weighted by time held. The accounting behind it credits coins for sitting still, so the level leans on supply that has been held a long time and moves like ballast instead of like a signal.

Price above it is an aggregate-profit condition. Price beneath it is a deep-value reading, and because the level moves slowly, getting there takes a sustained move rather than a bad week.

What it actually measures

Ordinary cost bases weigh each coin by how much of it there is. This one also weighs by how long it has sat still, so a coin held for years counts for more than one that changed hands last month.

That produces a heavier, slower level. It absorbs recent activity gradually and reflects the accumulated commitment of the supply rather than the opinion of the most recent buyer.

Time weighting inverts what a market usually counts

Markets are priced by whoever traded most recently. The last transaction sets the price and everything that came before is history. This level does the opposite, giving the most weight to the supply that has done nothing at all.

That inversion is the whole idea. If patience is what actually removes supply from the market, then the coins that have sat longest are the ones carrying the most information about where value sits, and a level built that way will disagree with spot for long stretches by design.

What it does not tell you

It is slow, and slowness cuts both ways. The level will not react to a genuine change in market structure for a long time, so it describes an accumulated condition and never a current one.

It also rests on the assumption that dormancy is a choice worth rewarding. Coins whose keys are lost sit still perfectly and receive the heaviest weighting of all, which is not the behaviour the model intends to capture.

How to read it

Far above Cointime Price. Price trades at a wide premium to the time-weighted basis, a condition the level moves too slowly to chase.

Above Cointime Price. Spot is above the level that weights coins by how long they have sat, so the market is collectively ahead.

Near Cointime Price. Spot has converged on the slow anchor, which takes a sustained move rather than a short one.

Below Cointime Price. Spot has slipped under the level that weights coins by how long they have sat.

Cointime Price is kept on the Cost Bases dashboard, in company with True Market Mean, Vaulted Price and Active Realised Price.

Common questions

What does time weighting change?

It gives long-held coins more weight than recently traded ones, so the level reflects accumulated commitment rather than recent activity.

Why is it so slow to move?

Because the supply carrying the most weight is the supply that does nothing. New activity is a small share of a large accumulated total, so it takes months of consistent behaviour to shift the line.

Is slow a weakness?

For timing, yes. For describing where value has settled across a cycle, it is the point. It answers a structural question, not a current one, and using it for anything faster is asking the wrong instrument.

What happens to coins whose keys are gone?

They receive the heaviest weighting of all, because perfectly dormant supply is exactly what the model rewards. That is a known distortion in the level, and it cannot be filtered out, because a lost coin and a patient one are indistinguishable on the chain.

How does it sit against the other fair-value levels?

It is the heaviest and slowest of them, so it moves last. Disagreement with a faster level usually means the faster one has moved, not this one, and reading the pair together is how you tell a genuine shift from a short-lived one.