The Conviction Price reports what the supply that has proved it will sit tight actually paid. Ordinarily it lies under the market as a base of money that has already earned its stripes, and a market trading beneath it means even that group is showing a loss.

It is a cost basis restricted to coins that have shown they stay put, which makes it a floor built from behaviour rather than an average taken across everyone.

What it actually measures

Most cost bases average across all holders and treat a coin that has never moved the same as one that changes hands monthly. This one keeps only the supply that has proved, over time, that it does not sell easily, and reports what that supply paid.

The result tends to be defended. Where patient capital actually bought is where it has historically been willing to step in, so the level reads as a rising floor beneath price rather than as a valuation estimate.

A floor built from evidence rather than from an average

Every other floor on the dashboard is a calculation applied to the whole supply. This one filters first and calculates second, which changes what the number means. It is not the average cost of the market, it is the cost of the part of the market that has already been tested.

That filtering is why the share of committed supply beneath the line matters as much as the line. A level with a large committed cohort behind it has real weight; the same level with a thin cohort behind it is a number without much standing behind it.

What it does not tell you

Demonstrated holding is a description of the past. A cohort that has never sold has never sold yet, and the filter cannot distinguish patience from indifference, or from keys that no longer work.

It is also a rare-event level. Price reaching it happens seldom, which means the record supporting it is short and drawn from conditions that will not repeat exactly.

And the filter itself is a judgement. Where the boundary for committed supply is drawn changes both the level and the weight behind it, so this is a considered estimate of where patient capital sits rather than an observation of it. Two providers drawing that boundary differently will produce two different floors from the same chain.

How to read it

Far above Conviction Price. Committed holders sit on a wide cushion and the floor is nowhere near being tested.

Above Conviction Price. The most patient money is in the black, and the level climbs underneath spot as a support.

Near Conviction Price. Price has fallen to where patient capital actually bought, the level it has tended to defend.

Below Conviction Price. Spot has dropped under what even the most committed cohort paid, which happens very rarely.

The Cost Bases dashboard holds Conviction Price together with LTH Realised Price, Waterline and Investor Price.

Common questions

What counts as committed supply?

Coins that have demonstrated over time that they stay put. It is a behavioural filter applied before the cost basis is taken.

Why filter before calculating?

Because an average across everyone mixes patient capital with supply that turns over constantly, and only one of those defends a level.

Why does the committed share matter?

Because it says how much supply is standing behind the level. The same number backed by a small cohort carries far less force.

Does a cohort that has never sold mean it never will?

No. It has never sold yet, and the filter cannot separate patience from indifference or from lost keys.

How often is it reached?

Seldom, which is what makes a touch notable and also what keeps the supporting record short.