CVDD (Cumulative Value Days Destroyed) is the deepest of the floor models on this dashboard. Price is above it for very nearly its entire history, and the touches that have happened coincided with generational bottoms.

It brings together the two ideas the dormancy family is built on, the age of coin and the value released when it moves, and turns them into a price line that can sit on the same axis as spot.

What it actually measures

The model reads what the market has paid for coin time across the network’s life, and expresses it as a level. Because coin time accumulates and rarely resets, that level rises slowly and does not give ground.

Its role on the dashboard is the bottom of the ladder. Price above it is the ordinary state, and the distance to it is a rough measure of how much room remains beneath the market before the deepest reference is reached.

A model calibrated to the lows is bound to look like it called them

CVDD is tuned so that it sits near the bottom of past cycles. That is the design. It means the historical fit is not evidence the model works, because a level fitted to past lows would show that fit whether or not it has any predictive content.

What would be evidence is out-of-sample performance, and there is very little of it. The honest position is that this is a well-reasoned floor with a handful of confirmations, and that a handful is not a track record. Treat a touch as a rare and interesting condition, not as a validated signal.

What it does not tell you

The touches number in the low single digits across the whole history of the network. No level can be called reliable on that sample, and each of those events occurred under a different market structure from the one now.

It also has nothing to say about anything other than the extreme. For the overwhelming majority of the time this line sits far below price doing nothing, which means it is silent exactly when most decisions are being made.

And the distance to it is not a forecast. A wide gap describes how far the market sits above its deepest reference, and no part of the model suggests price is heading there.

How to read it

Far above CVDD. Where price spends almost its entire history.

Above CVDD. The floor is intact and sits well beneath spot.

Approaching CVDD. Rare. Price is nearing a level reached only at cycle extremes.

Below CVDD. Price has pierced the deepest floor model on the dashboard, which has happened only at generational lows.

CVDD is one of the views on the Cost Bases dashboard, along with Vaulted Price, Balanced Price and Investor Price.

Common questions

What does CVDD describe?

What the market has paid for coin time across the network’s life, expressed as a price line that can sit on the same axis as spot.

How often has price reached it?

Very seldom, in the low single digits across the whole history. Those touches coincided with generational bottoms.

Does the historical fit prove it works?

No. The model is calibrated so that it sits near past lows, so it would show that fit whether or not it has predictive content. Out-of-sample evidence is what counts and there is little of it.

What is it useful for day to day?

Little. It sits far beneath price almost all of the time, which means it is silent when most decisions are being made.

How does it relate to the other floors?

It is the deepest of them. Balanced Price and Investor Price sit above it and are reached more often.